Law and order candidate: Toni Collette (‘Unbelievable’) may follow in the Emmy footsteps of Cagney and Lacey and Benson

Female crime fighters have won many times at the Emmys, from “Cagney and Lacey” stars Sharon Gless and Tyne Daly, to “Law and Order: Special Victims Unit” crusader Mariska Hargitay. This year the front-runner in the race for Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress according to our latest racetrack odds fits that bill. So will Toni Collette (“Unbelievable”) really prevail?

Collette gets leading odds of 37/10 for her role as Detective Grace Rasmussen, who is investigating a series of horrific rapes. It’s a performance full of righteous indignation as she considers whether a member of law enforcement may have committed the crimes, so her dogged determination in pursuing justice for victimized women is actually a lot like Hargitay’s on “SVU.”

And Collette already has a strong awards track record, winning an Emmy for “United States of Tara” and additionally earning a nomination for the telefilm “Tsunami: The Aftermath.” Also, her performance in “Unbelievable” has already won her a Critics’ Choice Award in addition to noms at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards.

Collette has the additional benefit of a borderline-lead role; the storyline is more or less evenly divided between her and lead-acting contenders Merritt Wever and Kaitlyn Dever. That abundance of screentime could give her an advantage here, especially since she also avoids splitting votes with her co-stars in the lead category.

All that may be why most of the Expert journalists we’ve polled as of this writing (12 out of 20) are placing their bets on Collette: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Jen Chaney (Vulture), Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Mary Murphy (Gold Derby), Robert Rorke, Kaitlin Thomas (TVGuide.com), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Ken Tucker (Yahoo) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby).

Collette is also backed by most of the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby and 16 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy nominations. Do you think we’re right that she’ll hold on for the win? Who might we be underestimating?

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions today so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions as often as you like until just before the nominees are announced on July 28. And join in the fun debate over the 2020 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our television forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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