2020 VMA predictions: Our official odds in 15 top categories at MTV Video Music Awards

The MTV Video Music Awards will be handed out on Sunday night, August 30, during a ceremony held in New York City and hosted by actress, singer and talk show personality Keke Palmer. But who will win? Scroll down to see our predictions in 15 fan-voted categories, listed in order of their racetrack odds with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

Our odds are based on the combined forecasts of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center ever since the nominations were announced. That includes the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combined the last two years’ winners, and the hundreds of everyday Users who make up our largest predictions bloc and whose collective forecasts are often better than any one person’s bets.

These awards come amid the COVID-19 pandemic, so the event will be different than usual. Originally planned for Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, the performances will now be held outdoors instead with little or no audience. So we can be pretty sure this ceremony will look and feel a little different than the usual. But the winners will still be decided by music fans voting online, except for the professional categories like Best Direction, Best Editing and Best Choreography (those awards aren’t in our predictions center this year).

So who are we betting on? Find out below, and if you think we’re way off the mark, you can make or update your own predictions here before the winners are announced this weekend.

VIDEO OF THE YEAR
“Rain on Me,” Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande — 10/3
“The Man,” Taylor Swift — 9/2
“Blinding Lights,” The Weeknd — 9/2
“Everything I Wanted,” Billie Eilish — 11/2
“Godzilla,” Eminem feat. Juice WRLD — 13/2
“Life is Good,” Future feat. Drake — 15/2

ARTIST OF THE YEAR
The Weeknd — 69/20
Justin Bieber — 9/2
Lady Gaga — 9/2
Post Malone — 11/2
Megan Thee Stallion — 13/2
DaBaby — 7/1

BEST NEW ARTIST
Doja Cat — 59/20
Lewis Capaldi — 9/2
YUNGBLUD — 11/2

SONG OF THE YEAR
“Circles,” Post Malone — 37/10
“The Box,” Roddy Ricch — 9/2
“Savage,” Megan Thee Stallion — 5/1
“Rain on Me,” Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande — 5/1
“Say So,” Doja Cat — 13/2
“Everything I Wanted,” Billie Eilish — 13/2

BEST COLLABORATION
“Rain on Me,” Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande — 82/25
“Stuck with U,” Ariana Grande and Justin Bieber — 4/1
“Tusa,” Karol G feat. Nicki Minaj — 5/1
“Beautiful People,” Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid — 6/1
“Life is Good,” Future feat. Drake — 13/2
“RITMO,” Black Eyed Peas feat. J Balvin — 7/1

BEST HIP-HOP VIDEO
“The Box,” Roddy Ricch — 69/20
“Godzilla,” Eminem feat. Juice WRLD — 4/1
“Savage,” Megan Thee Stallion — 9/2
“Bop,” DaBaby — 6/1
“Highest in the Room,” Travis Scott — 13/2
“Life is Good,” Future feat. Drake — 7/1

BEST LATIN VIDEO
“Tusa,” Karol Gfeat. Nicki Minaj — 17/5
“Yo Perreo Sola,” Bad Bunny — 4/1
“China,” Anuel AA feat. Daddy Yankee, Ozuna, Karol G, J Balvin — 5/1
“Amarillo,” J Balvin — 11/2
“MAMACITA,” Black Eyed Peas feat. Ozuna and J. Rey Soul — 13/2
“Que Pena,” Maluma feat. J Balvin — 7/1

BEST POP VIDEO
“On,” BTS — 69/20
“Lover,” Taylor Swift — 4/1
“Rain on Me,” Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande — 9/2
“Intentions,” Justin Bieber feat. Quavo — 6/1
“You Should Be Sad,” Halsey — 7/1
“What a Man Gotta Do,” Jonas Brothers — 15/2

BEST ROCK VIDEO
“Orphans,” Coldplay — 17/5
“Caution,” The Killers — 4/1
“Oh Yeah!,” Green Day — 5/1
“Happy Days,” Blink-182 — 11/2
“Wasted on You,” Evanescence — 13/2
“Dear Future Self (Hands Up),” Fall Out Boy feat. Wyclef Jean — 7/1

BEST ALTERNATIVE VIDEO
“Let’s Fall in Love for the Night,” Finneas — 18/5
“Level of Concern,” Twenty One Pilots — 4/1
“Doin’ Time,” Lana Del Rey — 9/2
“If You’re Too Shy (Let Me Know),” The 1975 — 11/2
“Bloody Valentine,” Machine Gun Kelly — 13/2
“Some Kind of Disaster,” All Time Low” — 15/2

BEST R&B VIDEO
“Blinding Lights,” The Weeknd — 10/3
“Do It,” Chloe x Halle — 4/1
“Cuz I Love You,” Lizzo — 5/1
“Underdog,” Alicia Keys — 6/1
“Eleven,” Khalid feat. Summer Walker — 13/2
“Slide,” H.E.R. feat. YG — 7/1

BEST K-POP VIDEO
“On,” BTS — 16/5
“Obsession,” EXO — 4/1
“Someone’s Someone” — Monsta X — 5/1
“9 and Three Quarters (Run Away),” Tomorrow X Together — 6/1
“Psycho,” Red Velvet — 13/2
“Oh My God,” (G)I-dle — 15/2

VIDEO FOR GOOD
“The Man,” Taylor Swift — 10/3
“I Love Me,” Demi Lovato — 4/1
“All the Good Girls Go to Hell,” Billie Eilish — 5/1
“I Can’t Breathe,” H.E.R. — 11/2
“The Bigger Picture,” Lil Baby — 13/2
“Lockdown,” Anderson Paak — 7/1

BEST MUSIC VIDEO FROM HOME
“Stuck with U,” Ariana Grande and Justin Bieber — 82/25
“Toosie Slide,” Drake — 4/1
“Wildflower,” 5 Seconds of Summer — 5/1
“Level of Concern,” Twenty One Pilots — 11/2
“Happy Days,” Blink-182 — 7/1
“Bigger Love,” John Legend — 15/2

BEST QUARANTINE PERFORMANCE
“Smile” from “One World: Together at Home,” Lady Gaga — 10/3
“Do It” from MTV’s Prom-athon, Chloe x Halle — 4/1
“Nirvana Tribute,” Post Malone — 5/1
“#TogetherAtHome Concert Series,” John Legend — 11/2
“Unplugged at Home,” CNCO — 13/2
“Club MTV Presents #DanceTogether,” DJ D-Nice — 15/2

VMA predictions for Video of the Year

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on August 30. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the 2020 VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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