2021 Independent Spirit Awards predictions: Who will win at Indie Spirits?

It’s almost time for the 36th Independent Spirit Awards, which will celebrate the best in indie filmmaking for the 2020 calendar year. Remember, only American-made movies with budgets under $20 million were eligible for consideration. Winners will be chosen by all of Film Independent’s eligible members, including industry insiders and any movie fans who sign up for membership. So who will win? Read on to see what we’re predicting to prevail when this year’s trophies are handed out Thursday, April 22 in a virtual ceremony airing on IFC at 7 p.m. PT/10 p.m. ET.

Gold Derby’s 2021 Spirit Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 2,300 Gold Derby readers, including Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting last year’s winners, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.

“Saturday Night Live” star Melissa Villaseñor will host the kudos on Thursday night. Here are Gold Derby’s 2021 Indie Spirit Awards predictions winner odds (and nominees) in the top categories:

BEST PICTURE
Nomadland” — 16/5
“Minari” — 19/5
“First Cow” — 9/2
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 9/2
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 9/2

BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”) — 31/10
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”) — 4/1
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) — 4/1
Eliza Hittman (“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”) — 9/2
Kelly Reichardt (“First Cow”) — 9/2

BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) — 10/3
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) — 18/5
Steven Yeun (“Minari”) — 4/1
Adarsh Gourav (“The White Tiger”) — 9/2
Rob Morgan (“Bull”) — 9/2

BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) — 37/10
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) — 39/10
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) — 5/1
Sidney Flanigan (“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”) — 11/2
Nicole Beharie (“Miss Juneteenth”) — 13/2
Julia Garner (“The Assistant”) — 7/1

SEE Adarsh Gourav delivers a ‘sensational’ performance in ‘The White Tiger’ and Independent Spirit Awards take notice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) — 16/5
Glynn Turman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) — 4/1
Orion Lee (“First Cow”) — 4/1
Colman Domingo (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) — 9/2
Benedict Wong (“Nine Days”) — 9/2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) — 31/10
Yeri Han (“Minari”) — 4/1
Talia Ryder (“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”) — 4/1
Alexis Chikaeze (“Miss Juneteenth”) — 9/2
Valerie Mahaffey (“French Exit”) — 9/2

BEST SCREENPLAY
“Promising Young Woman” — 82/25
“Minari” — 19/5
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 4/1
“Bad Education” — 9/2
“The Half of It” — 9/2

BEST FIRST FEATURE
“Sound of Metal” — 16/5
“The Forty-Year-Old Version” — 19/5
“Miss Juneteenth” — 9/2
“I Carry You With Me” — 9/2
“Nine Days” — 9/2

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
“Miss Juneteenth” — 17/5
“Palm Springs” — 37/10
“The Assistant” — 4/1
“Straight Up” — 9/2
“Lapsis” — 9/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
“Crip Camp” — 18/5
“Collective” — 4/1
“Dick Johnson Is Dead” — 4/1
“The Mole Agent” — 9/2
“Time” — 5/1

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
“Bacurau” — 10/3
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” — 4/1
“Night of the Kings” — 4/1
“Preparations to be Together for an Unknown Period of Time” — 9/2
“The Disciple” — 9/2

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Nomadland” — 31/10
“The Assistant” — 4/1
“She Dies Tomorrow” — 9/2
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 9/2
“Bull” — 9/2

BEST FILM EDITING
“Nomadland” — 31/10
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 4/1
“The Invisible Man” — 4/1
“I Carry You With Me” — 9/2
“Residue” — 9/2

More News from GoldDerby

Loading