2021 Oscar nominations predictions: Our official odds in all 23 Academy Awards categories

The 2021 Oscars nominations are almost here and we can already taste the minari. On Monday morning, March 15, the motion picture academy will announce the nominations for their 93rd annual awards. And then the winners will be announced on Sunday night, April 25, during what’ll most likely be virtual ceremony due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. So who will make the cut, and who will be left out? Scroll down to see Gold Derby’s complete nominations predictions in all 23 categories listed in order of our racetrack odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

Our odds are calculated by combining the predictions of more than 8,000 registered Gold Derby users who have placed their bets in our predictions center. They include Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from top media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s nominations and the All-Star Users who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the last couple of years.

And then of course, there are the thousands upon thousands of everyday Users who make up our largest predictions bloc. One of them will likely out-score the rest of us with their forecasts. And you can join them here if you haven’t already. Do you agree with our consensus Oscar bets? Check them all out below. Keep making or updating your predictions until the morning of nominations. And debate all the contenders with your fellow movie-lovers in our forums.

Remember, this year’s eligibility period (January 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021) was two months longer than usual because of Covid-19. And there are only 23 Academy Awards categories this year (down from 24) because sound editing and sound mixing have been combined together.

SEE Editors predictions slugfest: Making sense of ‘whirlwind 48 hours’ of PGA, BAFTA, DGA nominations

Here are Gold Derby’s official 2021 Oscar nominations predictions odds by category:

BEST PICTURE
Nomadland” — 13/2
The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 15/2
“Minari” — 8/1
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 9/1
“Mank” — 19/2
“Promising Young Woman” — 19/2
“One Night in Miami” — 10/1
“The Father” — 14/1
“Judas and the Black Messiah” — 16/1
“Sound of Metal” — 18/1

Watch out for: “Da 5 Bloods,” “News of the World,” “Soul”

BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”) — 82/25
David Fincher (“Mank”) — 9/2
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”) — 11/2
Aaron Sorkin (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) — 6/1
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) — 15/2

Watch out for: Regina King (“One Night in Miami”), Spike Lee (“Da 5 Bloods”), Florian Zeller (“The Father”)

BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) — 71/20
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) — 4/1
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) — 4/1
Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) — 5/1
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) — 5/1

Watch out for: Zendaya (“Malcolm and Marie”), Sophia Loren (“The Life Ahead”), Rosamund Pike (“I Care a Lot”)

BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) — 82/25
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) — 4/1
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) — 9/2
Gary Oldman (“Mank”) — 13/2
Steven Yeun (“Minari”) — 7/1

Watch out for: Delroy Lindo (“Da 5 Bloods”), Tahar Rahim (“The Mauritanian”), Kingsley Ben-Adir (“One Night in Miami”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman (“The Father”) — 4/1
Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) — 4/1
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) — 11/2
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) — 6/1
Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) — 13/2

Watch out for: Jodie Foster (“The Mauritanian”), Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”), Helena Zengel (“News of the World”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) — 7/2
Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami”) — 4/1
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) — 4/1
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) — 6/1
Chadwick Boseman (“Da 5 Bloods”) — 9/1

Watch out for: Mark Rylance (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”), Jared Leto (“The Little Things”), Alan Kim (“Minari”)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Nomadland” — 17/5
“One Night in Miami” — 4/1
“The Father” — 9/2
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 9/2
“News of the World” — 11/1

Watch out for: “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” “First Cow,” “The Mauritanian”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 7/2
“Promising Young Woman” — 4/1
“Minari” — 9/2
“Mank” — 5/1
“Sound of Metal” — 10/1

Watch out for: “Soul,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Da 5 Bloods”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Nomadland” — 18/5
“Mank” — 37/10
“News of the World” — 5/1
“Tenet” — 6/1
“Da 5 Bloods” — 12/1

Watch out for: “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Minari,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 69/20
“Mank” — 39/10
“Emma” — 9/2
“News of the World” — 7/1
“Mulan” — 7/1

Watch out for: “Personal History of David Copperfield,” “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” “Ammonite”

BEST FILM EDITING
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 7/2
“Nomadland” — 9/2
“Mank” — 11/2
“The Father” — 7/1
“Sound of Metal” — 21/2

Watch out for: “News of the World,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Tenet”

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 17/5
“Hillbilly Elegy” — 4/1
“Mank” — 5/1
“Birds of Prey” — 11/2
“Emma” — 8/1

Watch out for: “Pinocchio,” “Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey,” “The Glorias”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Mank” — 69/20
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 9/2
“News of the World” — 5/1
“Mulan” — 17/2
“Tenet” — 17/2

Watch out for: “Emma,” “The Midnight Sky,” “The Father”

BEST SCORE
“Soul” — 17/5
“Mank” — 9/2
“News of the World” — 5/1
“Minari” — 11/2
“The Midnight Sky” — 13/2

Watch out for: “Tenet,” “The Little Things,” “Da 5 Bloods”

BEST SONG
“Speak Now” (“One Night in Miami”) — 69/20
“Io Si (Seen)” (“The Life Ahead”) — 4/1
“Fight for You” (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) — 5/1
“Hear My Voice” (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) — 7/1
“Turntables” (“All In: The Fight for Democracy”) — 15/2

Watch out for: “Husavik” (“Eurovision Song Contest”), “Wuhan Flu” (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”), “Rain Song” (“Minari”)

BEST SOUND
“Sound of Metal” — 82/25
“Mank” — 11/2
“Tenet” — 6/1
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 15/2
“Soul” — 8/1

Watch out for: “News of the World,” “Greyhound,” “The Midnight Sky”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“Tenet” — 82/25
“The Midnight Sky” — 39/10
“Mank” — 11/2
“Mulan” — 6/1
“Welcome to Chechnya” — 15/2

Watch out for: “Birds of Prey,” “The One and Only Ivan,” “Soul”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Soul” — 16/5
“Wolfwalkers” — 39/10
“Over the Moon” — 9/2
“Onward” — 9/2
“The Croods: A New Age” — 12/1

Watch out for: “Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon,” “Earwig and the Witch,” “The Willoughbys”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Time” — 39/10
“Collective” — 5/1
“Welcome to Chechnya” — 6/1
“Dick Johnson Is Dead” — 13/2
“Boys State” — 15/2

Watch out for: “Crip Camp,” “All In: The Fight for Democracy,” “The Truffle Hunters”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
“Another Round” — 17/5
“Collective” — 11/2
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” — 11/2
“La Llorona” — 6/1
“Two of Us” — 6/1

Watch out for: “Dear Comrades,” “Night of the Kings,” “I’m No Longer Here”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“If Anything Happens I Love You” — 71/20
“Out” — 4/1
“Burrow” — 9/2
“Opera” — 6/1
“Kapaemahu” — 6/1

Watch out for: “The Snail and the Whale,” “Genius Loci,” “To Gerard”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“A Love Song for Latasha” — 37/10
“Colette” — 4/1
“Hunger Ward” — 5/1
“Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa” — 6/1
“Do Not Split” — 8/1

Watch out for: “A Concerto Is a Conversation,” “What Would Sophia Loren Do?,” “The Speed Cubers”

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
“The Letter Room” — 37/10
“The Human Voice” — 4/1
“Two Distant Strangers” — 5/1
“The Present” — 6/1
“Da Yie” — 7/1

Watch out for: “Feeling Through,” “White Eye,” “The Kicksled Choir”

PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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