Not only have marquee categories like Best Director been discussed ad nauseum, but they have also become foregone conclusions in this historically long Oscar season. More mysterious, yet each equally important to one’s predictions score are the short-film categories, which open my slugfest with Charlie Bright, Luca Giliberti and Tony Ruiz on the 10 toughest races to call for this Sunday’s ceremony (watch the video above). I tell them, “These are the […] categories that are going to kill us in our scores,” to which Ruiz responds, “Of course.” We close with an always-needed discussion on lead actresses:
00:55 — Best Live Action Short
10:00 — Best Documentary Short
18:55 — Best Animated Short
20:20 — Best Song
27:45 — Best Adapted Screenplay
32:55 — Best Production Design
35:50 — Best Film Editing
43:15 — Best Costume Design
45:20 — Best Makeup and Hairstyling
50:40 — Best Actress
Predictions in the last three races are complicated by the canary in the coalmine that was the snub of “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” in Best Picture. Whereas a front-running film like “Nomadland” might be prone to exceed expectations thanks to a rising tide lifting all boats, films like “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” that fall short in nominations tend to fall short in wins as well. It is the same academy voting in both rounds after all. “The Father” fared somewhere between “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “Nomadland” in nominations, so where exactly it might receive a de facto consolation prize is another subject of debate for our panel.
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