2021 PGA Awards nominations: Is this the Oscars Best Picture lineup?

The Producers Guild of America Awards announced its nominees for Best Picture on Monday (March 8), just two days before Oscar nominations voting ended. The 10 contenders are: “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Mank,” “Minari,” “Nomadland,” “One Night in Miami,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.”

All of these with the exception of “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” and “Sound of Metal” number among the Top 10 contenders we are predicting will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Expect that pair of pictures to rise in the ranks in the coming days given the success rate of the guild in previewing the eventual Oscar nominees. Conversely, the two films we have jockeying for those last slots in the Oscar lineup — The Father” and “News of the World” — were snubbed by the PGA and could well fall.

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When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2010, the Producers Guild of America followed suit. But while the academy shifted to a sliding scale in 2012, the PGA Awards has stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster. Indeed, the guild has predicted 87 of the 98 (i.e., 86%) of the Best Picture nominees over the past decade. In the 31-year history of the awards, its pick for best pic has gone on to take home the top Academy Award a whopping 21 times.

The five Best Animated Feature nominees at the PGA Awards mirror our predicted Oscar contenders: “The Croods: A New Age,” “Onward,” ” Over the Moon,” “Soul” and “Wolfwalkers.”

The PGA Awards will be handed out in a virtual ceremony on March 24. That is three full weeks before voting for the Oscar winners opens on April 15. The 93rd Academy Awards take place on Sunday, April 25.

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