2021 Billboard Music Awards predictions: Our odds say The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, and BTS will win in top categories

There are dozens of awards up for grabs at the 2021 Billboard Music Awards, which will be presented on Sunday night, May 23, during a live ceremony hosted by Nick Jonas, himself a three-time BBMA winner for his work as a member of the Jonas Brothers. So who will take home trophies this year? Scroll down for our complete odds in 15 top categories, with our projected winners highlighted in gold. These odds are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center.

The fans decide the winners at these awards, but not like they usually do by voting online. These kudos are determined by commercial success as measured by the Billboard charts during the eligibility period of March 21, 2020 through April 3, 2021. Those charts are calculated every week by tracking album sales, track sales, on-demand streams, social engagement, and radio airplay. So if you’ve bought an album or listened to Spotify in the last year, you’ve basically been voting for the BBMAs.

The Weeknd goes in with the most nominations (16), and we’re betting on him to win the biggest award of the night for Top Artist. His chart achievements over the last year include a number-one album (“After Hours“) as well as the unprecedented success of “Blinding Lights,” which shattered records for the most weeks in the top five and the top 10 of the Hot 100 singles chart — it’s the only song ever to spend a full year in the top 10.

We’re also predicting multiple wins for Taylor Swift including Top Female Artist on the strength of not one, but two surprise albums that debuted at number-one within just a few months of each other (“Folklore” and “Evermore“). And tipped to win Top Duo or Group is the K-Pop band BTS, who had three number-one singles and two number-one albums in 2020. BTS are also expected to win Top Social Artist, which is one of only two categories that actually are decided by fans voting online, and it’s always been tough to beat the BTS Army here: they’ve won this award for the last four years in a row.

Do you agree with our forecasts? Check out our predictions below, and make or update your own predictions before winners are announced this weekend.

TOP ARTIST
The Weeknd — 31/10
Taylor Swift — 19/5
Pop Smoke — 9/2
Drake — 9/2
Juice WRLD — 9/2

TOP NEW ARTIST
Doja Cat — 16/5
Pop Smoke — 37/10
Gabby Barrett — 9/2
Rod Wave — 9/2
Jack Harlow — 9/2

TOP FEMALE ARTIST
Taylor Swift — 31/10
Ariana Grande — 4/1
Dua Lipa — 4/1
Megan Thee Stallion — 9/2
Billie Eilish — 9/2

TOP MALE ARTIST
The Weeknd — 31/10
Pop Smoke — 4/1
Drake — 9/2
Juice WRLD — 9/2
Lil Baby — 9/2

TOP DUO OR GROUP
BTS — 31/10
Dan and Shay — 39/10
Maroon 5 — 9/2
AJR — 9/2
AC/DC — 9/2

TOP R&B ARTIST
The Weeknd — 3/1
Doja Cat — 4/1
Justin Bieber — 9/2
Jhene Aiko — 9/2
Chris Brown — 9/2

TOP RAP ARTIST
Pop Smoke — 16/5
DaBaby — 4/1
Drake — 4/1
Juice WRLD — 9/2
Lil Baby — 9/2

TOP ROCK ARTIST
Machine Gun Kelly — 21/10
AJR — 39/10
Twenty One Pilots — 4/1
AC/DC — 9/2
Five Finger Death Punch — 9/2

TOP COUNTRY ARTIST
Morgan Wallen — 16/5
Luke Combs — 19/5
Gabby Barrett — 4/1
Chris Stapleton — 9/2
Kane Brown — 9/2

TOP LATIN ARTIST
Bad Bunny — 3/1
J Balvin — 39/10
Maluma — 9/2
Anuel AA — 9/2
Ozuna — 9/2

TOP DANCE/ELECTRONIC ARTIST
Lady Gaga — 3/1
Marshmello — 4/1
The Chainsmokers — 9/2
Kygo — 9/2
Surf Mesa — 9/2

TOP SOCIAL ARTIST
BTS — 3/1
Blackpink — 4/1
Ariana Grande — 4/1
Seventeen — 9/2
SB19 — 9/2

TOP BILLBOARD 200 ALBUM
Taylor Swift, “Folklore” — 16/5
The Weeknd, “After Hours” — 19/5
Pop Smoke, “Shoot for the Stars, Aim for the Moon” — 4/1
Lil Baby, “My Turn” — 9/2
Juice WRLD, “Legends Never Die” — 9/2

TOP HOT 100 SONG
The Weeknd, “Blinding Lights” — 3/1
DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch, “Rockstar” — 4/1
24kGoldn feat. Iann Dior, “Mood” — 9/2
Gabby Barrett feat. Charlie Puth, “I Hope” — 9/2
Chris Brown and Young Thug, “Go Crazy” — 9/2

TOP COLLABORATION
DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch, “Rockstar” — 31/10
24kGoldn feat. Iann Dior, “Mood” — 39/10
Gabby Barrett feat. Charlie Puth, “I Hope” — 4/1
Chris Brown and Young Thug, “Go Crazy” — 9/2
Jack Farlow feat. Tory Lanez, DaBaby, and Lil Wayne, “Whats Poppin” — 9/2

billboard music awards top artist predictions widget

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify record executives and music stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where thousands of showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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