Before Golden Globe nominations were announced, Daniel Kaluuya ranked third in our predictions for Best Film Supporting Actor for his role as slain Black Panthers leader Fred Hampton in “Judas and the Black Messiah.” But perhaps getting the nomination was the biggest challenge, because Kaluuya has since leapfrogged the competition and moved into first place. Now that he’s in, do you agree that he’ll win?
In the nominations round, Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”) was our front-runner, followed closely by Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”). Now the order is reversed, with Kaluuya in first place with 71/20 odds, followed by Cohen with 37/10 odds and Odom with 39/10 odds. So why such a big change?
It could be partly due to the fact that Odom also received a nomination for Best Original Song for the “Miami” composition “Speak Now.” Our odds say he’s the heavy favorite to win that prize, and the Golden Globes often like to spread the wealth, so voters may feel he’s taken care of well enough there, sort of like how they gave Lady Gaga the songwriting award for the “A Star is Born” theme “Shallow” but gave Best Film Drama Actress to Glenn Close (“The Wife”) instead.
Likewise, Cohen has an additional nomination for Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” reprising his role from the 2006 original, for which he also won a Golden Globe. He’s the heavy favorite to win again for “Borat,” leaving Best Film Supporting Actor as the only available category to honor Kaluuya’s achievement. So if the Hollywood Foreign Press Association wants to spread the wealth — or hedge their bets when it comes to anticipating the Oscars — they have a chance to send home all three Supporting Actor contenders with hardware in one category or another.
This isn’t Kaluuya’s first Globe nomination. They helped put the actor on the map as one of the first major awards groups to nominate him for his performance in “Get Out” (2017). He went on to receive SAG and Oscar nominations for that performance, a rare feat for a horror film, especially for an actor who wasn’t as well known beforehand. So we know the HFPA admires his work, though “Judas” only has one other nomination this year for its own original song, “Fight For You.”
Now Kaluuya is backed by three of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed thus far, four of the Editors who cover awards year round for Gold Derby, 12 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Globe winners, and 13 of the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the last couple of years. It looks like it’s going to be close though, since Cohen and Odom also have support from multiple Experts, Editors and Top Users. Do you agree that it’s a three-way race? If so, which of the three are you leaning towards?
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