Ever since “Mare of Easttown” aired on HBO in the spring, it has ascended up our Emmy odds to the point where it has put immense pressure on longtime front-runner “The Queen’s Gambit,” especially in the race for Best Movie/Limited Actress. But who’s out front now depends on who you ask.
Kate Winslet (“Mare of Easttown”) is now the one to beat according to the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets: 11 of them are betting on her to prevail for her role as a troubled detective struggling to solve two cases, while nine say Anya Taylor-Joy (“Queen’s Gambit”) is still the favorite for playing an equally troubled chess prodigy. The Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby agree, with eight of them backing Winslet compared to just two backing Taylor-Joy.
But not so fast! The Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy nominations are still heavily favoring Taylor-Joy: 13 are betting on the chess phenom, while only four have jumped on the Winslet bandwagon so far. The same is true of our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest predictions scores when you combine the Emmy nomination results from the last couple of years: 15 of them say Taylor-Joy, while four say Winslet.
On paper, you’d think Winslet would have the clear edge. She’s the more established star, an Oscar and Emmy winner who claimed this very award for “Mildred Pierce” in 2011. But the television academy has been welcoming younger stars in recent years, awarding 20-somethings Jodie Comer (“Killing Eve”), Jharrel Jerome (“When They See Us”) and Zendaya (“Euphoria”) in lead-acting categories in the last two years. And Taylor-Joy swept the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG Awards this past spring, though “Mare” hadn’t aired yet so she didn’t have to face Winslet. The Emmys will be the first time they go head-to-head. And it looks like it’s going to be close.
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