There’s nothing more dangerous for an awards prognosticator than changing your predictions at the last minute, but that’s just what Gold Derby Editors Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery have done in the days leading up to the Emmys. Following the Creative Arts Awards on September 11 and 12, they’ve had a change of heart — several changes of heart actually. Watch their video predictions slugfest above.
What Dixon and Montgomery agree on is the ascendance of “The Queen’s Gambit,” which dominated the Creative Arts Awards with nine wins including Best Movie/Limited Casting, which usually (but not always) foretells the ultimate winner for Best Limited Series. They’re both now betting on it to win the top prize, after Dixon had been backing “Mare of Easttown” and Montgomery had his money on “WandaVision.” Dixon “made quite a few changes” following Creative Arts: not only is he betting on the “Queen” for Best Limited Series, he’s also now backing Anya Taylor-Joy for Best Movie/Limited Actress, and he thinks Scott Frank will take Best Movie/Limited Directing. “How can a show win all of those Creative Arts technical prizes and then not give it to the director?”
Meanwhile, Montgomery switched his pick for Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) from odds-on favorite “Hamilton” to Creative Arts darling “Bo Burnham: Inside.” Burnham has won three times already, for writing, directing, and music direction. It was the directing win that especially swayed Montgomery since Burnham defeated heavy-hitters like Spike Lee (“American Utopia”) and Thomas Schlamme (“A West Wing Special”): “It kind of reminds me of how he won the Writers Guild Award … and the Directors Guild Award for [Best First-Time Director] for ‘Eighth Grade,’ beating a bunch of Oscar nominees. There’s just so much industry love for him.” But Montgomery also admits awards prognosticators are predisposed to analyzing a race to the point of talking themselves into the wrong answer: “We are sometimes at risk of overthinking an obvious conclusion.”
So what are you thinking — or overthinking — now that we’re in the home stretch of Emmy season?
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