The Golden Globes announce their 2021 nominations on Wednesday, February 3 — later than usual, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In a normal awards cycle these prizes would’ve been handed out already, raising questions of how the pandemic and the extended awards timeline will affect the results (like the Oscars, the Globes are considering films released through the end of February).
But as of this writing more than 3,500 Gold Derby users have let us know here in our predictions center who they believe will be nominated and win. Scroll down to see who we’re betting on in 11 film categories with nominees ranked in order of their racetrack odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold and dark-horse contenders for nominations in italics.
Among our thousands of users whose combined predictions generated our racetrack odds are Expert journalists from major media outlets, the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Globe nominations, and the All-Star Top 24 who had the highest prediction scores when you combine the last couple of years’ results. Check out 2020’s leaderboard here to see which Users, Experts and Editors had the best predictions last year.
The Globes are especially tricky to forecast — especially their nominations — because they’re voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an organization of international journalists comprising fewer than 100 members. With such a small voting body, it would only take a few passionate members to sway the results towards one film and away from another. And in a year when audiences — awards voters included — are engaging with film and filmmakers in new and unfamiliar ways … well, we’re about to find out what films benefit the most from our new normal. See who we’re betting on below, and make or update your own predictions here before nominations are announced.
BEST FILM DRAMA
“Nomadland” — 17/5
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 4/1
“Mank” — 11/2
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 6/1
“One Night in Miami” — 17/2
Watch Out For: “The Father” (12/1); “Promising Young Woman” (28/1); “Da 5 Bloods” (42/1); “News of the World” (52/1)
BEST FILM DRAMA ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 69/20
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” — 39/10
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” — 9/2
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” — 11/2
Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead” — 8/1
Watch Out For: Zendaya, “Malcolm and Marie” (13/1); Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (40/1); Kate Winslet, “Ammonite” (62/1)
BEST FILM DRAMA ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 69/20
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” — 19/5
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” — 5/1
Gary Oldman, “Mank” — 11/2
Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods” — 11/2
Watch Out For: Steven Yeun, “Minari” (28/1); Tom Hanks, “News of the World” (28/1)
BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL
“The Prom” — 39/10
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” — 4/1
“On the Rocks” — 9/2
“Palm Springs” — 5/1
“Hamilton” — 11/2
Watch Out For: “French Exit” (40/1); “Emma” (56/1); “The Personal History of David Copperfield” (66/1)
BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTRESS
Meryl Streep, “The Prom” — 19/5
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” — 4/1
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit” — 9/2
Rashida Jones, “On the Rocks” — 11/2
Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma” — 7/1
Watch Out For: Cirstin Milioti, “Palm Springs” (20/1); Emily Blunt, “Wild Mountain Thyme” (52/1); Rosamund Pike, “I Care a Lot” (62/1)
BEST FILM COMEDY/MUSICAL ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” — 10/3
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs” — 4/1
Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield” — 5/1
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton” — 6/1
Pete Davidson, “The King of Staten Island” — 9/1
Watch Out For: Leslie Odom Jr., “Hamilton” (11/1); Jamie Dornan, “Wild Mountain Thyme” (52/1); James Corden, “The Prom” (54/1)
BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” — 71/20
Olivia Colman, “The Father” — 39/10
Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman” — 5/1
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy” — 6/1
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” — 7/1
Watch Out For: Saoirse Ronan, “Ammonite” (25/1); Nicole Kidman, “The Prom” (28/1); Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian” (42/1)
BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” — 37/10
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 9/2
Bill Murray, “On the Rocks” — 6/1
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” — 13/2
Mark Rylance, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 8/1
Watch Out For: Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” (10/1); David Strathairn, “Nomadland” (28/1); Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods” (33/1); Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (50/1)
BEST FILM DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland” — 10/3
David Fincher, “Mank” — 9/2
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 9/2
Regina King, “One Night in Miami” — 5/1
Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods” — 15/2
Watch Out For: Florian Zeller, “The Father” (18/1); Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari” (35/1); Paul Greengrass, “News of the World” (50/1)
BEST FILM SCREENPLAY
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 7/2
“Nomadland” — 4/1
“Mank” — 5/1
“One Night in Miami” — 11/2
“The Father” — 15/2
Watch Out For: “Promising Young Woman” (15/1); “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (28/1); “One the Rocks” (75/1)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Soul” — 16/5
“Wolfwalkers” — 39/10
“Over the Moon” — 9/2
“Onward” — 9/2
“The Willoughbys” — 9/1
Watch Out For: “The Croods: A New Age” (15/1); “Trolls World Tour” (58/1); “Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (66/1)
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
