2021 Gotham Awards predictions: ‘Nomadland,’ ‘First Cow’ and Chadwick Boseman are odds-on favorites to win

The Gotham Awards for independent film are being handed out tonight, January 11. More than 1,200 Gold Derby users have been predicting the winners since nominations were announced in October, and their predictions have been combined to generate our official racetrack odds. Scroll down to see our forecasts in 10 categories, with the nominees listed in order of their odds and our projected winners highlighted in gold.

Nomadland” is the favorite to win Best Feature at these awards, which it would add to its already abundant pile of plaudits. It has already been named the best film of the year by critics in Boston, Chicago, Indiana and Greater Western New York, not to mention the Alliance of Women Film Journalists and the National Society of Film Critics.

But this wouldn’t be the first time director Chloe Zhao claimed this prize. Her previous film “The Rider” prevailed in 2018 even though it flew under the radar for most of that awards season. It even beat bigger Oscar contenders that year “The Favourite,” “First Reformed” and “If Beale Street Could Talk.” “Nomadland” has a much higher profile, as it’s our Oscar front-runner for Best Picture as of this writing, so does that make it a shoo-in?

Maybe, but maybe not. The Gothams differ from other awards in that winners are not decided by an organization at large. Though they’re presented by the Independent Filmmaker Project, winners are chosen by small juries of film industry professionals. Those juries change from year to year and from category to category, which means big surprises are not only possible, but almost inevitable.

Nevertheless, we’re betting on additional wins for Chadwick Boseman (Best Actor for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), who is also receiving a posthumous Actor Tribute from the IFP. We’re projecting other victories for “First Cow” (Best Screenplay), “Time” (Best Documentary), “Watchmen” (Breakthrough Series Long Form) and Sidney Flanigan (Best Actress for “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”), among others. Check out our complete forecasts below, and make or update your own predictions here in our predictions center before prizes are handed out at 8:00pm Eastern.

“Nomadland” — 16/5
“First Cow” — 39/10
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 4/1
“The Assistant” — 9/2
“Relic” — 9/2

“Time” — 16/5
“76 Days” — 39/10
“City Hall” — 4/1
“A Thousand Cuts” — 9/2
“Our Time Machine” — 9/2

“Martin Eden” — 19/5
“Wolfwalkers” — 9/2
“Bacurau” — 9/2
“Beanpole” — 5/1
“Cuties” — 13/2
“Identifying Features” — 7/1

Radha Blank, “The Forty-Year-Old Version” — 82/25
Andrew Patterson, “The Vast of Night” — 19/5
Channing Godfrey Peoples, “Miss Juneteenth” — 4/1
Alex Thompson, “Saint Frances” — 9/2
Carlo Mirabella-Davis, “Swallow” — 9/2

“First Cow” — 82/25
“The Forty-Year-Old Version” — 39/10
“The Vast of Night” — 4/1
“Bad Education” — 9/2
“Fourteen” — 9/2

Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” — 16/5
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” — 39/10
Jessie Buckley, “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” — 9/2
Carrie Coon, “The Nest” — 9/2
Nicole Beharie, “Miss Juneteenth” — 9/2

Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 82/25
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Meta” — 37/10
John Magaro, “First Cow” — 9/2
Jesse Plemons, “I’m Thinking of Ending Things” — 9/2
Jude Law, “The Nest” — 9/2

Sidney Flanigan, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” — 10/3
Kingsley Ben-Adir, “One Night in Miami” — 37/10
Kelly O’Sullivan, “Saint Frances” — 9/2
Orion Lee, “First Cow” — 9/2
Jasmine Batchelor, “The Surrogate” — 9/2

“Watchmen” — 16/5
“Unorthodox” — 19/5
“The Great” — 9/2
“Immigration Nation” — 9/2
“P-Valley” — 9/2

“I May Destroy You” — 31/10
“Dave” — 39/10
“Betty” — 9/2
“Work in Progress” — 9/2
“Taste the Nation” — 9/2

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Be sure to make your Gotham predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see this year’s contenders are faring in our Gotham odds. You can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. And join the discussion on this and more taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movies forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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