2021 Grammy predictions: Our official odds in 32 categories from Album of the Year to Best Song from Visual Media

The Grammys will be handed out on Sunday night, March 14, during a ceremony hosted by Grammy-nominated comedian and “Daily Show” star Trevor Noah. But who will take home trophies this year? Scroll down for our predictions in 32 categories, listed in order of our racetrack odds with projected winners highlighted in gold. Do you agree with our forecasts?

Our odds are based on the combined predictions of our registered users, including the Editors who cover awards full-time for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Grammy winners, and the All-Star Top 24 who had the best predictions scores when you combine the results for the past two years, so those two elite groups of prognosticators are especially important to pay attention to.

The Grammy nominations shocked us in many ways with left-field bids for under-the-radar artists like Black Pumas and Jacob Collier, while some expected favorites like The Weeknd and Luke Combs were shut out entirely despite their massive impact on the music industry in 2020. The Weeknd was joined by fellow artists including Drake and Halsey in criticizing the recording academy, which has been under fire in recent years for allegations of voting corruption, especially from the organization’s own former CEO Deborah Dugan.

So questions of legitimacy may continue to haunt the awards for a while no matter who wins, though the contenders do include a wide-ranging selection of contenders from R&B/hip-hop (including Beyonce, Roddy Ricch, and Megan Thee Stallion), throwback disco-pop (Dua Lipa), American roots (Black Pumas), jazz (Jacob Collier), and of course Taylor Swift‘s creative departure into more of a folk/alternative-leaning sound. Will the winners be just as surprising as the nominations were? And do you think we’ll see more voting reforms in the years to come? See who we’re betting on below. And you can keep making or updating your own predictions until winners are announced on March 14.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Taylor Swift, “Folklore” — 4/1
Dua Lipa, “Future Nostalgia” — 5/1
Haim, “Women in Music Pt. III” — 15/2
Post Malone, “Hollywood’s Bleeding” — 8/1
Coldplay, “Everyday Life” — 8/1
Jhene Aiko, “Chilombo” — 9/1
Black Pumas, “Black Pumas (Deluxe Edition)” — 9/1
Jacob Collier, “Djesse Vol. 3” — 19/2

RECORD OF THE YEAR
Dua Lipa, “Don’t Start Now” — 9/2
Megan Thee Stallion feat. Beyonce, “Savage” — 11/2
Billie Eilish, “Everything I Wanted” — 6/1
Post Malone, “Circles” — 7/1
Beyonce, “Black Parade” — 15/2
Doja Cat, “Say So” — 9/1
DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch, “Rockstar” — 19/2
Black Pumas, “Colors” — 10/1

SONG OF THE YEAR
Taylor Swift, “Cardigan” — 9/2
Dua Lipa, “Don’t Start Now” — 5/1
Beyonce, “Black Parade” — 13/2
H.E.R., “I Can’t Breathe” — 15/2
Billie Eilish, “Everything I Wanted” — 8/1
Post Malone, “Circles” — 9/1
Roddy Ricch, “The Box” — 19/2
JP Saxe feat. Julia Michaels, “If the World Was Ending” — 10/1

BEST NEW ARTIST
Megan Thee Stallion — 9/2
Phoebe Bridgers — 9/2
Doja Cat — 13/2
Ingrid Andress — 15/2
Noah Cyrus — 17/2
Kaytranada — 9/1
D Smoke — 19/2
Chika — 10/1

BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE
Dua Lipa, “Don’t Start Now” — 71/20
Taylor Swift, “Cardigan” — 19/5
Billie Eilish, “Everything I Wanted” — 5/1
Harry Styles, “Watermelon Sugar” — 11/2
Doja Cat, “Say So” — 13/2
Justin Bieber, “Yummy” — 15/2

BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
Taylor Swift feat. Bon Iver, “Exile” — 16/5
Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande, “Rain on Me” — 19/5
BTS, “Dynamite” — 4/1
J Balvin, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny and Tainy, “Un Dia” — 9/2
Justin Bieber feat. Quavo, “Intentions” — 9/2

BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Taylor Swift, “Folklore” — 16/5
Dua Lupa, “Future Nostalgia” — 19/5
Lady Gaga, “Chromatica” — 4/1
Harry Styles, “Fine Line” — 9/2
Justin Bieber, “Changes” — 9/2

BEST TRADITIONAL POP ALBUM
Renee Zellweger, “Judy” — 17/5
James Taylor, “American Standard” — 7/2
Harry Connick Jr., “True Love: A Celebration of Cole Porter” — 9/2
Rufus Wainwright, “Unfollow the Rules” — 9/2
Burt Bacharach and Daniel Tashian, “Blue Umbrella” — 9/2

BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE
Fiona Apple, “Shameika” — 82/25
Phoebe Bridgers, “Kyoto” — 9/2
Brittany Howard, “Stay High” — 9/2
Haim, “The Steps” — 11/2
Big Thirf, “Not” — 7/1
Grace Potter, “Daylight” — 7/1

BEST ROCK SONG
Fiona Apple, “Shameika” — 31/10
Phoebe Bridgers, ‘Kyoto” — 4/1
Brittany Howard, “Stay High” — 9/2
Tame Impala, “Lost in Yesterday” — 9/2
Big Thief, “Not” — 9/2

BEST ROCK ALBUM
The Strokes, “The New Abnormal” — 31/10
Sturgill Simpson, “Sound and Fury” — 39/10
Grace Potter, “Daylight” — 9/2
Michael Kiwanuka, “Kiwanuka” — 9/2
Fontaines DC, “A Hero’s Death” — 9/2

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Fiona Apple, “Fetch the Bolt Cutters” — 31/10
Phoebe Bridgers, “Punisher” — 4/1
Brittany Howard, “Jaime” — 4/1
Tame Impala, “The Slow Rush” — 9/2
Beck, “Hyperspace” — 9/2

BEST R&B PERFORMANCE
Beyonce, “Black Parade” — 31/10
Jhene Aiko feat. John Legend, “Lightning and Thunder” — 39/10
Brittany Howard, “Goat Head” — 9/2
Jacob Collier feat. Mahalia and Ty Dolla $ign, “All I Need” — 9/2
Emily King, “See Me” — 9/2

BEST R&B SONG
Beyonce, “Black Parade” — 31/10
Chloe x Halle, “Do It” — 19/5
Robert Glasper feat. H.E.R. and Meshell Ndegeocello, “Better Than I Imagine” — 9/2
Skip Marley and H.E.R., “Slow Down” — 9/2
Tiana Major9 and EARTHGANG, “Collide” — 9/2

BEST R&B ALBUM
John Legend, “Bigger Love” — 31/10
Gregory Porter, “All Rise” — 4/1
Luke James, “To Feel Love/d” — 4/1
Ant Clemons, “Happy 2 Be Here” — 9/2
Giveon, “Take Time” — 9/2

BEST PROGRESSIVE R&B ALBUM
Jhene Aiko, “Chilombo” — 16/5
Chloe x Halle, “Ungodly Hour” — 37/10
Robert Glasper, “Fuck Yo Feelings” — 9/2
Free Nationals, “Free Nationals” — 9/2
Thundercat, “It Is What It Is” — 9/2

BEST RAP PERFORMANCE
Megan Thee Stallion feat. Beyonce, “Savage” — 82/25
Lil Baby, “The Bigger Picture” — 9/2
Big Sean feat. Nipsey Hussle, “Deep Reverence” — 9/2
DaBaby, “Bop” — 6/1
Pop Smoke, “Dior” — 6/1
Jack Harlow, “Whats Poppin” — 15/2

BEST MELODIC RAP PERFORMANCE
DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch, “Rockstar” — 16/5
Roddy Ricch, “The Box” — 39/10
Anderson Paak, “Lockdown” — 4/1
Travis Scott, “Highest in the Room” — 9/2
Drake feat. Lil Durk, “Laugh Now Cry Later” — 9/2

BEST RAP SONG
Megan Thee Stallion feat. Beyonce, “Savage” — 17/5
Lil Baby, “The Bigger Picture” — 37/10
DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch, “Rockstar” — 4/1
Roddy Ricch, “The Box” — 9/2
Drake feat. Lil Durk, “Laugh Now Cry Later” — 9/2

BEST RAP ALBUM
Nas, “King’s Disease” — 31/10
Jay Electronica, “A Written Testimony” — 4/1
Royce Da 5’9″, “The Allegory” — 4/1
Freddie Gibbs and The Alchemist, “Alfredo” — 9/2
D Smoke, “Black Habits” — 9/2

BEST COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE
Miranda Lambert, “Bluebird” — 31/10
Mickey Guyton, “Black Like Me” — 4/1
Brandy Clark, “Who You Thought I Was” — 4/1
Vince Gill, “When My Amy Prays” — 9/2
Eric Church, “Stick That in Your Country Song” — 9/2

BEST COUNTRY DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
Dan + Shay with Justin Bieber, “10,000 Hours” — 16/5
Old Dominion, “Some People Do” — 39/10
Brothers Osborne, “All Night” — 9/2
Little Big Town, “Sugar Coat” — 9/2
Lady A, “Ocean” — 9/2

BEST COUNTRY SONG
Maren Morris, “The Bones” — 5/1
Miranda Lambert, “Bluebird” — 6/1
Ingrid Andress, “More Hearts Than Mine” — 7/1
The Highwomen, “Crowded Table” — 7/1
Old Dominion, “Some People Do” — 15/2

BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Miranda Lambert, “Wildcard” — 31/10
Ashley McBryde, “Never Will” — 4/1
Brandy Clark, “Your Life is a Record” — 4/1
Ingrid Andress, “Lady Like” — 9/2
Little Big Town, “Nightfall” — 9/2

BEST LATIN POP/URBAN ALBUM
Bad Bunny, “YHLQMDLG” — 31/10
Ricky Martin, “Pausa” — 39/10
Camilo, “Por Primera Vez” — 9/2
Debi Nova, “3:33” — 9/2
Kany Garcia, “Mesa Para Dos” — 9/2

BEST COMEDY ALBUM
Jerry Seinfeld, “23 Hours to Kill” — 71/20
Tiffany Haddish, “Black Mitzvah” — 19/5
Patton Oswalt, “I Love Everything” — 19/5
Jim Gaffigan, “The Pale Tourist” — 9/2
Bill Burr, “Paper Tiger” — 9/2

BEST SPOKEN WORD ALBUM
Ken Jennings, “Alex Trebek: The Answer Is…” — 82/25
Meryl Streep, “Charlotte’s Web” — 19/5
Ronan Farrow, “Catch and Kill” — 4/1
Rachel Maddow, “Blowout” — 9/2
Flea, “Acid for the Children: A Memoir” — 9/2

BEST MUSIC VIDEO
Beyonce, “Brown Skin Girl” — 31/10
Harry Styles, “Adore You” — 4/1
Anderson Paak, “Lockdown” — 4/1
Future feat. Drake, “Life is Good” — 9/2
Woodkid, “Goliath” — 9/2

BEST MUSICAL THEATER ALBUM
“Jagged Little Pill” — 71/20
“American Utopia” — 37/10
“Amelie” — 11/2
“Little Shop of Horrors” — 11/2
“The Prince of Egypt” — 13/2
“Soft Power” — 15/2

BEST VISUAL MEDIA COMPILATION
“Frozen II” — 16/5
“Jojo Rabbit” — 19/5
“Eurovision Song Contest” — 9/2
“Bill and Ted Face the Music” — 9/2
“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” — 9/2

BEST VISUAL MEDIA SCORE
“Joker” — 31/10
“1917” — 19/5
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” — 9/2
“Becoming” — 9/2
“Ad Astra” — 9/2

BEST VISUAL MEDIA SONG
“No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” — 31/10
“Into the Unknown” from “Frozen II” — 4/1
“Stand Up” from “Harriet” — 4/1
“Carried Me with You” from “Onward” — 9/2
“Beautiful Ghosts” from “Cats” — 9/2

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