‘Small Axe’ standout John Boyega may storm the Golden Globes: He takes the lead in our TV Supporting Actor odds

Small Axe” made a large impact when it premiered last fall, uniting film and television critics in their praise of the Steve McQueen anthology series about the history of oppression against West Indian immigrants in the UK. The Los Angeles Film Critics Association even awarded it Best Picture. But it competes as a TV limited series at the Golden Globes, and now it’s the front-runner to win Best TV Supporting Actor for John Boyega.

Before nominations were announced, Boyega ranked fourth in our predictions with 6/1 odds based on the combined forecasts of Gold Derby users, with none of our Experts predicting him to win. Many of our users and top journos might have been hedging their bets about his candidacy since he’d never been nominated for a Globe before and the TV supporting categories at these awards are prohibitively crowded, combining comedies, dramas, movies and limited series with only five nomination slots available. The hardest part for anyone in this category is just getting the nomination.

But Boyega did earn a nom, and “Small Axe” is also up for Best TV Movie/Limited Series. Now that he has leapt over that hurdle, he might have a clear path to victory. He’s currently out front with 7/2 odds, now with five Experts predicting him to win, as well as most of the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby (more Experts will chime in as we get closer to the Globes ceremony on February 28).

It’s a closer race if you ask our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Globe winners: nine of them say Boyega will prevail, but 10 are betting on Dan Levy (“Schitt’s Creek”), who recently won four Emmys for his work on the show as a writer, director, actor and producer. And the race is a dead heat according to our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest prediction scores when you combine the results from the last couple of years: nine of them say Boyega, and nine say Levy.

But Boyega may have an advantage of actually playing a lead role in “Small Axe.” He gets a big dramatic showcase in the episode “Red, White and Blue” as a young man trying to enter the police force despite the disapproval of his father and the blatant racism of his white colleagues. He’s running as a supporting actor here because he doesn’t appear in any of the other four episodes of the anthology series.

He might also be helped by the fact that he’s the only “Small Axe” actor nominated, so if Globe voters are passionate enough about the series he’s the only option to give it an acting award (and if “Small Axe” wins the top prize, voters often like to pair a best series award with an acting award). Levy, meanwhile, is one of four “Schitt’s Creek” actors in contention. As a co-creator of the show, voters could take care of him by awarding it Best Comedy Series, and if they want to pair that up with an acting prize they could go with leads Eugene Levy or Catherine O’Hara, or supporting actress Annie Murphy.

Do you agree with our current odds that Boyega will prevail, or will Levy continue the awards romp that started at the Emmys?

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