‘Mank’ and ‘Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom’ will lead 2021 Oscar nominations: See all predictions by film

When the 2021 Oscars nominations are announced on Monday, March 15, watch for “Mank” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” to dominate the morning. These Netflix films are predicted to top all others that premiered in theaters or streamed online within the eligibility period (January 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021), which lasted two months longer than normal due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Below, see the film-by-film breakdown of all of the features that are expected to receive bids this year, based on Gold Derby’s racetrack odds.

“Mank” is the only movie we’re predicting to reap double-digit bids, with 13 total. This nonlinear, black-and-white film tells the true story of Herman J. Mankiewicz (Gary Oldman), a screenwriter who struggles with alcoholism while penning the script for Orson Welles‘ “Citizen Kane.” “Mank” is directed by David Fincher, based on a script his late father Jack Fincher wrote decades earlier. Amanda Seyfried takes on the role of Marion Davies, a 1930s actress who grows close to the troubled screenwriter.

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is next in line with eight expected nominations. It’s adapted from the 1982 play by August Wilson, who fictionalized a recording of blues singer Gertrude “Ma” Rainey (Viola Davis). George C. Wolfe directed the movie from a script by Ruben Santiago-Hudson. The film is notable in that it’s Chadwick Boseman‘s final on-screen appearance following his death from colon cancer in August. Boseman plays Levee Green, Ma’s trumpet player, who wants to leave the band and go his own way.

Other films we’re forecasting will earn major love on nominations morning are: “Minari” (six bids), “Nomadland” (six), “Sound of Metal” (six), “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (six), “The Father” (five), “News of the World” (five), “One Night in Miami” (four), “Promising Young Woman” (four) and “Tenet” (four). Have you made YOUR Oscar predictions yet? There’s still time to prove you’re the smartest prognosticator on the planet, so what are you waiting for?

Here are Gold Derby’s 2021 Oscar nominations predictions by film:

13 NOMINATIONS

“Mank”
Best Picture
Best Director (David Fincher)
Best Actor (Gary Oldman)
Best Supporting Actress (Amanda Seyfried)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Production Design
Best Score
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects

8 NOMINATIONS

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Best Picture
Best Actress (Viola Davis)
Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Production Design
Best Sound

6 NOMINATIONS

“Minari”
Best Picture
Best Director (Lee Isaac Chung)
Best Actor (Steven Yeun)
Best Supporting Actress (Yuh-Jung Youn)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Score

“Nomadland”
Best Picture
Best Director (Chloe Zhao)
Best Actress (Frances McDormand)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing

“Sound of Metal”
Best Picture
Best Actor (Riz Ahmed)
Best Supporting Actor (Paul Raci)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Sound

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Best Picture
Best Director (Aaron Sorkin)
Best Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Film Editing
Best Song (“Hear My Voice”)

5 NOMINATIONS

“The Father”
Best Picture
Best Actor (Anthony Hopkins)
Best Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing

“News of the World”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design
Best Score

4 NOMINATIONS

“One Night in Miami”
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor (Leslie Odom, Jr.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Song (“Speak Now”)

“Promising Young Woman”
Best Picture
Best Director (Emerald Fennell)
Best Actress (Carey Mulligan)
Best Original Screenplay

“Tenet”
Best Cinematography
Best Production Design
Best Sound
Best Visual Effects

3 NOMINATIONS

“Judas and the Black Messiah”
Best Picture
Best Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya)
Best Song (“Fight for You”)

“Mulan”
Best Costume Design
Best Production Design
Best Visual Effects

“Soul”
Best Animated Feature
Best Score
Best Sound

2 NOMINATIONS

“Collective”
Best Documentary Feature
Best International Film

“Da 5 Bloods”
Best Supporting Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
Best Cinematography

“Emma”
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Hillbilly Elegy”
Best Supporting Actress (Glenn Close)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“The Midnight Sky”
Best Score
Best Visual Effects

“Welcome to Chechnya”
Best Documentary Feature
Best Visual Effects

1 NOMINATION

“All In: The Fight for Democracy”
Best Song (“Turntables”)

“Another Round”
Best International Film

“Birds of Prey”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Best Supporting Actress (Maria Bakalova)

“Boys State”
Best Documentary Feature

“The Croods: A New Age”
Best Animated Feature

“Dick Johnson Is Dead”
Best Documentary Feature

“La Llorona”
Best International Film

“The Life Ahead”
Best Song (“Io Si (Seen)”)

“Onward”
Best Animated Feature

“Over the Moon”
Best Animated Feature

“Pieces of a Woman”
Best Actress (Vanessa Kirby)

“Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Best International Film

“Time”
Best Documentary Feature

“Two of Us”
Best International Film

“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Best Actress (Andra Day)

“Wolfwalkers”
Best Animated Feature

PREDICT the 2021 Oscar nominations through March 15

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