2021 MTV Video Music Awards: Your guide to who will win the top 5 categories including Video and Artist of the Year

The VMAs are this weekend, and with performances from superstars like Olivia Rodrigo, Lil Nas X, Foo Fighters, and Doja Cat, the awards show might give us one of its best ceremonies yet. Let’s dive into the top five general categories and see which artists might pick up a Moon Person at the event.

Video of the Year

In my mind, this is a two-horse race between two controversial music videos: Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion’s “WAP” and Lil Nas X’s “Montero (Call Me By Your Name).” Both were huge attention-getters during the eligibility period, and both were praised and criticized for their takes on sexuality, whether it was “WAP’s” in-your-face take on female sexuality and empowerment or “Montero’s” exploration of Nas’s sexual orientation. As such, it’s hard to pick between the two. I’m going to go with Nas’s “Montero” solely because Nas has a lot of hype right now with his most recent single “Industry Baby” smashing as well, but both videos would be equally deserving. In the case that, somehow, neither wins, “Kiss Me More” by Doja Cat and SZA would make the most sense as a solid third right now.

Artist of the Year

This category is hard to predict for two reasons. First, it’s relatively new, having first been given out in 2017, which means there isn’t a clear pattern to the winners yet. Second, and more importantly, the category is packed with superstars with big fandoms. Since Doja Cat has had both a huge year (multiple hit singles plus the hit album “Planet Her”) and passionate fans, and is also hosting the awards this year, I’ll go with her for the win here. However, I would watch out for Justin Bieber or Ariana Grande; Grande would be the first to win twice, having previously taken this award back in 2019.

Song of the Year

This is another category where “WAP” could pull through. However, with BTS’ “Dynamite,” you should watch out. BTS fans have complained about the lack of the nominations for the boy band in the general categories, so the Army could throw their support behind “Dynamite.” Finally, also keep an eye out for Olivia Rodrigo, whose “Drivers License” was a year-defining hit, and she is arguably the biggest star of the year. Fans and MTV alike may want to honor her with an equally big award. And speaking of Rodrigo …

Best New Artist

You’re going to have to get used to reading “Olivia Rodrigo will win Best New Artist” all season long. She’s had three smash hits, including two number-ones (“Drivers License” and “Good 4 U”). Her debut album “Sour” has been a roaring success, notching five weeks at number-one and being steady in the top five since it debuted. The point is, Rodrigo is huge, and that will likely result in a BNA sweep at award shows, much like last year’s winner Doja Cat (though unlike Doja, Rodrigo will probably go all the way and win the Grammy too). If for some reason you want to predict an upset, The Kid LAROI is inarguably the second biggest artist nominated, so he’s probably the runner-up.

Best Collaboration

This will probably be a face-off between “WAP” and “Kiss Me More.” Since MTV likes spreading the wealth, I’ll give this one to “WAP”; Doja Cat is already most likely winning Artist of the Year. That said, Lady Gaga did win both Artist of the Year and Best Collaboration last year, so take that with a grain of salt.

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until the weekend of the awards. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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