Netflix is set to occupy all five Best TV Drama Actress nomination slots at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users. Additional performances from Netflix actually rank sixth and seventh in the category as well, so our racetrack odds would have to be way off the mark for another network to sneak into the lineup.
Laura Linney (“Ozark”) is the front-runner, having been nominated by SAG both seasons that she has been eligible thus far and having previously been awarded by the group for the HBO miniseries “John Adams” 12 years ago. Olivia Colman (“The Crown”) actually has more predicting her to be nominated than Linney, but she is in the runner-up position because almost twice as many predict Linney to win. The category is set to be rounded out in order by Gillian Anderson (“The Crown”), Julia Garner (“Ozark”) and Emma Corrin (“The Crown”), with Helena Bonham Carter (“The Crown”) and Sarah Paulson (“Ratched”) nipping at their heels. Garner was nominated for “Ozark” two years ago, while Colman and Bonham Carter were nominated last year for their first of two years on the royal drama, losing to Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”), but “The Crown” won the drama ensemble award.
Eighth-ranked Jodie Comer (BBC America’s “Killing Eve”) is the only actress not from Netflix who is not a longshot in the category, as all below her have 100-to-1 odds.
Best TV Comedy Actor is the only SAG race that has ever seen its nominees come exclusively from a single network, as NBC fielded all of its nominees in 1995, 1996 and 1997. Jason Alexander (“Seinfeld”), Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier”), David Hyde Pierce (“Frasier”) and Michael Richards (“Seinfeld”) faced off all three of those years. Paul Reiser (“Mad About You”) rounded out the category the first year, when Pierce won. John Lithgow (“3rd Rock from the Sun”) rounded it out the other two and won both times.
Netflix dominating the drama actress lineup this year would mark the first time that all of a category’s nominees came from a single streaming service, as well as the first time that a drama category or an actress category nominated only a single network/service. Netflix almost pulled off this same feat three and four years ago when Claire Foy (“The Crown”) won consecutive trophies. The lone non-Netflix nominee the first time was Thandie Newton (HBO’s “Westworld”), who was replaced by Elisabeth Moss (Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale”) the next year.
SAG has given four of the five nomination slots in a category to a single network/service 13 times, with Netflix being the quadruple nominee the last four times. The first four times were by NBC in the 1990s. The middle five times were by HBO. The first eight times that a network held four out of five slots, that network won, but the dominant network/service has lost in three of the last five instances of this phenomenon.
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