New York Film Critics Circle Awards: Don’t count on these when making your Oscar predictions

The New York Film Critics Circle is so determined to be one of the first groups to weigh in with its picks for the best of the year that the date of its decision-making keeps getting advanced. But how much influence does it have on the last group to be heard from — the motion picture academy which will reveal the Oscar winners 114 days from now on March 27, 2022? Let’s take a look back at the last 10 years of the NYFCC picks and see how well (or not), these early kudos previewed the Academy Awards.

Last year, the academy’s top winner, “Nomadland,” had to settle here for just the directing prize for multi-hyphenate Chloe Zhao. The NYFCC Best Picture was one indie film, “First Cow,” while Best Actress went to the star of another, Sidney Flanigan (“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”). “Da 5 Bloods” took two trophies: Delroy Lindo claimed Best Actor, while the late Chadwick Boseman won Best Supporting Actor. Maria Bakalova won Supporting Actress for her breakthrough role as the title character’s teenage daughter in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.” Of these NYFCC honorees only Bakalova and Boseman reaped Oscar bids.

In 2019, “The Irishman” was the top pick with the Gotham crowd while the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture, “Parasite,” had to settle for the foreign language prize. The NYFCC Best Director winners Benny and Josh Safdie (“Uncut Gems”) were snubbed by the academy as was Best Actress winner Lupita N’yongo (“Us”). Best Actor Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”) and Supporting Actor Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”) did reap Oscar bids and Supporting Actress Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”) went on to win at the Academy Awards too.

In 2018, “Roma” swept the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, winning Best Picture and both Best Director and Best Cinematography for multi-hyphenate Alfonso Cuaron. While he won both those individual races at the Oscars, his film lost the big prize to “Green Book,” which had been snubbed by the NYFCC. Four-time Academy Awards winner “Bohemian Rhapsody” was also completely overlooked by these New York-based scribes. Conversely, Gotham critics picks Regina Hall (“Support the Girls”) and Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”) were not nominated by the academy for their leading roles. The NYFCC winner for Best Supporting Actress, Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), did pick up an Oscars and her male counterpart, Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me”), reaped a Best Supporting Actor bid.

SEE New York Film Critics’ Circle Awards 2021: Full list of winners [UPDATING LIVE]

In 2017, Greta Gerwig‘s solo directorial debut “Lady Bird” was named Best Picture by the NYFCC while its star, Saoirse Ronan, took home the Best Actress award. The film fell short at the Oscars, losing Best Picture to “The Shape of Water,” which had been overlooked here. Also MIA from the NYFCC line-up was “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which won Oscars for leading lady Frances McDormand and supporting player Sam Rockwell. Sean Baker won Best Director from the NYFCC for “The Florida Project”; he was snubbed by the academy. However, that film’s Willem Dafoe did see his Supporting Actor win from the New York critics lead to an Oscar nomination. Likewise for Best Actor winner Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”) who lost the Oscar to Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”).”Girls Trip” scene stealer Tiffany Haddish won the Supporting Actress award but was spurned by the actors branch of the academy.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

In 2016, “La La Land” was named Best Picture by the New York Film Critics Circle. That was its only prize from the Gotham scribes, who also showered love on two other strong Oscar contenders, “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight.” Casey Affleck won Best Actor for his sensitive portrayal of a grieving brother in “Manchester by the Sea” and Director Kenneth Lonergan claimed Best Screenplay; they both repeated at the Oscars. Michelle Williams was named Best Supporting Actress winner for her work in both the low-profile “Certain Women” and “Manchester by the Sea”; she was Oscar-nominated for the latter. Barry Jenkins won Best Director for “Moonlight,” which he co-wrote as well; he won the Adapted Screenplay Oscar. Mahershala Ali won Best Supporting Actor for his scene-stealing performance in the film as a kindly drug dealer; he repeated at the Oscars. And James Laxton won Best Cinematography for his bravura work with light and images; he was nominated at the Oscars. And Gallic star Isabelle Huppert was feted as Best Actress for two films: “Elle” and “Things to Come.” She contended at the Oscars for the former.

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

In 2015, the big winner with the NYFCC was the period romance “Carol,” which four awards: Best Picture, Best Director (Todd Haynes), Screenplay (Phyllis Nagy) and Cinematography (Ed Lachman). Both the film and director were snubbed at the Oscars. While Michael Keaton won Best Actor here for “Spotlight,” the studio campaigned him in supporting at the Oscars where he was snubbed. “Brooklyn” ingenue Saoirse Ronan won Best Actress and did go on to reap an Oscar bid. “Bridge of Spies” scene-stealer Mark Rylance was named Best Supporting Actor and went on to repeat at the Oscars. Kristen Stewart, who won over the critics with her featured role in the Gallic import “Clouds of Sils Maria,” was overlooked by the academy.

In 2014, “Boyhood” won Best Picture, Director (Richard Linklater) and Supporting Actress (Patricia Arquette); only Arquette went on to win an Oscar. And the Gotham critics completely shut out “Birdman,” which was Oscar’s big winner taking home four awards (Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Cinematography). The NYFCC choice for Best Actress (Marion Cotillard) did reap an Oscar bid for one of her two cited films (“Two Days, One Night”), Best Actor winner (Timothy Spall, “Mr. Turner”) was snubbed by the Oscars, and Best Supporting Actor champ J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”) prevailed at the Oscars as well.

In 2013, “American Hustle” claimed three prizes from the Circle — taking home Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Jennifer Lawrence) and Screenplay — while Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”) was named Best Director; all contended but lost at the Oscars. The other acting awards went to two eventual Oscar champs — lead Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”) and supporting player Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”) — and Robert Redford (“All is Lost”) who was snubbed by the academy.

In 2012, the NYFCC went with “Zero Dark Thirty” for Best Picture and Director (Kathryn Bigelow). While the film went on to lose the the top Oscar race to “Argo,” Bigelow was snubbed by the directors branch of the academy (the Oscar went to “Life of PI” helmer Ang Lee.) Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”) began his march to a third Oscar with a win from the NYFCC. However, two of the other NYFCC acting champs didn’t even reap Oscar bids — Best Actress Rachel Weisz (“The Deep Blue Sea”) and Best Supporting Actor Matthew McConaughey (“Bernie” & “Magic Mike”) — while Best Supporting Actress winner Sally Field (“Lincoln”) lost her quest for a third Oscar to Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”).

And in 2011, the NYFCC named “The Artist” both Best Picture and Best Director (Michel Hazanavicius) and the academy did likewise. Meryl Streep won her fourth Best Actress prize from the Gotham critics for her portayal of British PM Margaret Thatcher in “The Iron Lady” before claiming her third Oscar for the role. Brad Pitt was cited as Best Actor by the NYFCC for his work in both “Moneyball” and “The Tree of Life” and Jessica Chastain was named Best Supporting Actress for three films: “The Help,” “Take Shelter” and “The Tree of Life.” Pitt reaped an Oscar bid for “Moneyball” while Chastain was recognized for “The Help.” Albert Brooks won over the NYFCC with his featured role in “Drive” but was snubbed by Oscar voters.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

More News from GoldDerby