‘Nomadland’: No SAG ensemble bid, no problem heading into Oscars

A Screen Actors Guild Awards Film Ensemble nomination is usually a strong indication of which contenders are gaining ground in the race for Best Picture at the Oscars. The official list of nominees announced this morning certainly cemented the strength of frontrunners “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night in Miami,” and gave boosts to “Minari” and “Da 5 Bloods.” Fans of “Nomadland” may worry about its omission here, but its snub shouldn’t impact its frontrunner status in the least

SEE ‘Da 5 Bloods’ makes a comeback in the SAG Awards nominations, while ‘Minari’ comes on just as strong

“Nomadland” currently leads our combined odds for Best Picture at the Oscars and that certainly will not change as a result of these SAG nominations. The Screen Actors Guild loves to amplify big ensembles that feature popular and acclaimed performers. There are exceptions – “Parasite” prevailed last year over starry casts like “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “The Irishman,” and “Bombshell” – but that slot when to acclaimed “Minari” this year.

And unlike “Parasite” last year and “Minari,” the ensemble of “Nomadland” is predominantly non-professional actors, so it was incredibly unlikely to earn a nomination. It did pick up a bid for its leading actress Frances McDormand, illustrating that the actors did like the film. Though they could’ve doubled down on their support with a bid for David Strathairn, our combined odds didn’t predict him for a nomination.

SEE Top 6 SAG Awards film nomination surprises include Amy Adams, ‘Minari,’ Jared Leto (again!) …

The “Nomadland” cast SAG snub should be no reason to fret for its chances yet. If it ultimately wins Best Picture, it’ll join three prior films to do so without a SAG ensemble bid — “Braveheart,” “The Shape of Water” and, most recently, “Green Book.” This recent trend could benefit “Nomadland,” but this same argument didn’t serve “La La Land.” That Oscar-front runner earned SAG bids for Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling but missed ensemble because of its relatively small cast, just like “Nomadland.” In hindsight, though, that snub actually foretold its eventual Best Picture loss to “Moonlight.”

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