A Screen Actors Guild Awards Film Ensemble nomination is usually a strong indication of which contenders are gaining ground in the race for Best Picture at the Oscars. The official list of nominees announced this morning certainly cemented the strength of frontrunners “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night in Miami,” and gave boosts to “Minari” and “Da 5 Bloods.” Fans of “Nomadland” may worry about its omission here, but its snub shouldn’t impact its frontrunner status in the least
“Nomadland” currently leads our combined odds for Best Picture at the Oscars and that certainly will not change as a result of these SAG nominations. The Screen Actors Guild loves to amplify big ensembles that feature popular and acclaimed performers. There are exceptions – “Parasite” prevailed last year over starry casts like “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “The Irishman,” and “Bombshell” – but that slot when to acclaimed “Minari” this year.
And unlike “Parasite” last year and “Minari,” the ensemble of “Nomadland” is predominantly non-professional actors, so it was incredibly unlikely to earn a nomination. It did pick up a bid for its leading actress Frances McDormand, illustrating that the actors did like the film. Though they could’ve doubled down on their support with a bid for David Strathairn, our combined odds didn’t predict him for a nomination.
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