How often do the SAG Awards go 4/4 with the Oscars?

The Screen Actors Guild Awards have one of the best track records with the four Oscar acting categories: SAG has only mismatched five times in Best Actor, seven times in Best Actress, nine times in Best Supporting Actor and eight times in Best Supporting Actress. That’s pretty good news for SAG champs Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom“), Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) and Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”). But while SAG matches up with Oscar a lot in the categories individually, it has comparatively less success batting 1000 in all four categories in one year.

In its 26-year history, SAG has directly matched 4/4 with Oscar only eight times, most recently last year with sweepers Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Renee Zellweger (“Judy”), Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”) and Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”). That was the second season with a complete 20/20 acting sweep of the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, SAG, BAFTA and Oscar after the 2017 class of Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) and Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”).

SAG typically goes 3/4 with Oscar, which has occurred 11 times. The most recent one was four years ago when Denzel Washington (“Fences”) disrupted Casey Affleck‘s dominant season for “Manchester by the Sea” with a surprise SAG Awards victory — his first.

SEE Making sense of the refreshingly messy Best Actress Oscar race

Just four times have SAG and Oscar gone 2/4. That happened two years ago when the academy anointed Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) Best Actress instead of SAG champ Glenn Close (“The Wife), while SAG winner Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”) was snubbed by the Oscars, which went for the SAG-snubbed Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”). There have been three instances of 1/4 — all in the early 2000s — and SAG has never gone 0/4.

That being said, some of these cases were forced splits, whether due to category confusion — like Kate Winslet campaigning and winning in supporting for “The Reader” (2008) all season long before getting nominated and winning in lead at the Oscars — or snubs, like Blunt/King or SAG champ and Oscar snubbee Idris Elba for “Beasts of No Nation” (2015).

Also of note is that the 4/4 matches started to pick up after the Oscars moved from March to February (in a normal year) 17 years ago — seven of the eight have occurred since then and six of them since 2009 — as there has been far more uniformity and rubber-stamping among the precursors. The stats point to SAG probably getting one category wrong this year, and you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to think that it would be in Best Actress, the most up-in-the-air race that only matches 4/5 with the SAG nominees, Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) being the SAG-snubbed outlier.

Here’s how SAG and Oscar have matched up in the past (years are of film release):

1994: 3/4
SAG: Tom Hanks (“Forrest Gump”), Jodie Foster (“Nell”), Martin Landau (“Ed Wood”), Dianne Wiest (“Bullets Over Broadway”)

 Hanks, Jessica Lange (“Blue Sky”), Landau, Wiest

1995: 2/4
SAG: Nicolas Cage (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), Ed Harris (“Apollo 13”), Kate Winslet (“Sense and Sensibility”)

Oscar: Cage, Sarandon, Kevin Spacey (“The Usual Suspects”), Mira Sorvino (“Mighty Aphrodite”)

1996: 3/4
SAG: Geoffrey Rush (“Shine”), Frances McDormand (“Fargo”), Cuba Gooding Jr. (“Jerry Maguire”), Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”)

Oscar: Rush, McDormand, Gooding, Juliette Binoche (“The English Patient”)

1997: 4/4*
SAG and Oscar: Jack Nicholson (“As Good as It Gets”), Helen Hunt (“As Good as It Gets”), Robin Williams (“Good Will Hunting”), Kim Basinger (“L.A. Confidential”)

Basinger won the SAG in a tie with Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”).

1998: 2/4
SAG: Roberto Benigni (“Life Is Beautiful”), Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love”), Robert Duvall (“A Civil Action”), Kathy Bates (“Primary Colors”)

Oscar: Benigni, Paltrow, James Coburn (“Affliction”), Judi Dench (“Shakespeare in Love”)

SEE Viola Davis, Andra Day surge in Best Actress Oscar odds after SAG Awards frenzy

1999: 3/4
SAG: Kevin Spacey (“American Beauty”), Annette Bening (“American Beauty”), Michael Caine (“The Cider House Rules”), Angelina Jolie (“Girl, Interrupted”)

Oscar: Spacey, Hilary Swank (“Boys Don’t Cry”), Caine, Jolie

2000: 1/4*
SAG: Benicio del Toro (“Traffic”), Julia Roberts (“Erin Brockovich”), Albert Finney (“Erin Brockovich”), Judi Dench (“Chocolat”)

Oscar: Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”), Roberts, Del Toro, Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”)

*Del Toro won the SAG in lead and the Oscar in supporting while Harden was not nominated at SAG.

2001: 1/4*
SAG: Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”), Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Ian McKellen (“The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”), Helen Mirren (“Gosford Park”)

Oscar: Denzel Washington (“Training Day”), Berry, Jim Broadbent (“Iris”), Jennifer Connelly (“A Beautiful Mind”)

*Connelly was nominated in lead at SAG and won the Oscar in supporting.

2002: 1/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”), Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”), Christopher Walken (“Catch Me If You Can”), Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”)

Oscar: Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”), Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”), Chris Cooper (“Adaptation”), Zeta-Jones

2003: 3/4
SAG: Johnny Depp (“Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”), Charlize Theron (“Monster”), Tim Robbins (“Mystic River”), Renee Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”)

Oscar: Sean Penn (“Mystic River”), Theron, Robbins, Zellweger

SEE Viola Davis just joined this elite (and very recent) club with her bookend lead actress SAG Award win

2004: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), Cate Blanchett (“The Aviator”)

2005: 3/4
SAG: Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”), Paul Giamatti (“Cinderella Man”), Rachel Weisz (“The Constant Gardener”)

Oscar: Hoffman, Witherspoon, George Clooney (“Syriana”), Weisz

2006: 3/4
SAG: Forest Whitaker (“The Last King of Scotland”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”), Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”)

Oscar: Whitaker, Mirren, Alan Arkin (“Little Miss Sunshine”), Hudson

2007: 2/4
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”), Julie Christie (“Away From Her”), Javier Bardem (“No Country for Old Men”), Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”), Bardem, Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”)

2008: 3/4*
SAG: Sean Penn (“Milk”), Meryl Streep (“Doubt”), Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”), Kate Winslet (“The Reader”)

Oscar: Penn, Winslet, Ledger, Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)

*Winslet won the SAG in supporting and the Oscar in lead.

SEE Andra Day or Vanessa Kirby would be the 13th Best Actress Oscar winner to triumph as the sole nominee for their film

2009: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”), Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”), Mo’Nique (“Precious”)

2010: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”), Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”), Christian Bale (“The Fighter”), Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”)

2011: 3/4
SAG: Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”), Viola Davis (“The Help”), Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”), Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)

Oscar: Dujardin, Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Plummer, Spencer

2012: 3/4*
SAG: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”)

Oscar: Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”), Hathaway

*Waltz was not nominated at SAG.

2013: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”), Jared Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Lupita Nyong’o (“12 Years a Slave”)

SEE Joaquin Phoenix: 13 films ranked from worst to best

2014: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)

2015: 3/4*
SAG: Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Brie Larson (“Room”), Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)

Oscar: DiCaprio, Larson, Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Vikander

*Elba was not nominated at the Oscars.

2016: 3/4
SAG: Denzel Washington (“Fences”), Emma Stone (“La La Land”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Viola Davis (“Fences”)

Oscar: Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”), Stone, Ali, Davis

2017: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)

2018: 2/4*
SAG: Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”), Glenn Close (“The Wife”), Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”), Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”)

Oscar: Malek, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”), Ali, Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)

*Blunt was not nominated at the Oscars and King was not nominated at SAG.

2019: 4/4
SAG and Oscar: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Renee Zellweger (“Judy”), Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)

Oscar predictions for Best Actress
Precursors have gone to different women

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