The Screen Actors Guild Awards have a soft spot for Netflix, and this year’s nominations will be no different, according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. We think the three top films will come from the streaming service when nominations are announced on Thursday, February 4. Scroll down to see our predictions listed by film, with our projected winners highlighted in gold.
We’re betting on “Da 5 Bloods,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “Mank” to earn three noms apiece, including the top prize for the year’s best ensemble cast. And another Netflix film, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” is our current front-runner to win the top award. (We’re not predicting the sixth SAG category for stunt ensembles in our predictions center; that could potentially add to the total for the war film “Da 5 Bloods,” though probably not “Ma Rainey” or “Mank.”)
The streaming service can thank Chadwick Boseman for a lot of its kudos. If we’re right, Boseman will account for four of their noms: individual and cast nominations for “Da 5 Bloods,” as well as individual and cast nominations for “Ma Rainey.” The actor previously won a SAG Award as a member of the “Black Panther” ensemble cast, but he hasn’t been honored individually yet. He died unexpectedly in 2020 at the age of 43 after battling cancer, and we’re expecting the guild to pay tribute to him by awarding his lead performance in “Ma Rainey.”
SAG’s love affair with Netflix movies started with “Beasts of No Nation” (2015) which earned an ensemble nomination despite having only three actors counted for that award. It also won for Idris Elba‘s supporting performance, but it was completely skunked by the Oscars. Then “Mudbound” (2017) was nominated for its cast, though that film missed out on a Best Picture Oscar bid. “The Irishman” (2019) was the streamer’s most recent cast nominee. Now we think it will account for four out of the five slots in the top race.
The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly made at-home viewing and streaming services more or less the standard for moviegoing in 2020 and now 2021. Do you agree with us about just how much Netflix will capitalize? Check out our forecasts below.
“DA 5 BLOODS”
Cast in a Motion Picture
Male Actor in a Leading Role — Delroy Lindo
Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Chadwick Boseman
“MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM”
Cast in a Motion Picture
Female Actor in a Leading Role — Viola Davis
Male Actor in a Leading Role — Chadwick Boseman
“MANK”
Cast in a Motion Picture
Male Actor in a Leading Role — Gary Oldman
Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Amanda Seyfried
“THE FATHER”
Male Actor in a Leading Role — Anthony Hopkins
Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Olivia Colman
“ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI”
Cast in a Motion Picture
Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Leslie Odom Jr.
“PIECES OF A WOMAN”
Female Actor in a Leading Role — Vanessa Kirby
Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Ellen Burstyn
“SOUND OF METAL”
Male Actor in a Leading Role — Riz Ahmed
Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Paul Raci
“THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7”
Cast in a Motion Picture
Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Sacha Baron Cohen
“BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM”
Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Maria Bakalova
“HILLBILLY ELEGY”
Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Glenn Close
“JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH”
Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Daniel Kaluuya
“MALCOLM AND MARIE”
Female Actor in a Leading Role — Zendaya
“NOMADLAND”
Female Actor in a Leading Role — Frances McDormand
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