SAG Awards predictions for Film Actress: Kristen Stewart (‘Spencer’) holds narrow lead, but who could stage an upset?

Since the SAG Awards began handing out trophies for Best Film Actress in 1994, every single winner has gone on to receive an Oscar nomination. According to Gold Derby’s SAG Awards predictions for Film Actress, the five nominees will be Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”), Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”), Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”) and Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”).

Stewart’s performance as Princess Diana in “Spencer” comes in first place with 71/20 odds. This would be the first individual SAG Awards nomination for Stewart and her second overall following a Film Ensemble bid for 2007’s “Into the Wild.” In “Spencer,” Stewart portrays the Princess of Wales as she grapples with mental health issues and decides to end her decade-long marriage to Prince Charles.

Chastain’s performance as televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” comes in second place with 9/2 odds. This would be the third individual SAG Awards nomination for Chastain and her fourth overall. She previously received Film Supporting Actress and Film Ensemble bids for “The Help” (2011) and a Film Actress nod for “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012). In “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Chastain is disguised in prosthetics as she portrays the make-up loving Christian who loves puppetry, singing and Jesus. The film follows the rise, fall and redemption of Bakker while putting a spotlight on her tumultuous marriage to Jim (Andrew Garfield).

Lady Gaga’s performance as Patrizia Reggiani in “House of Gucci” comes in third place with 5/1 odds. This would be the pop star’s third nomination with the acting guild. She earned her prior two bids for Film Ensemble and Film Actress in “A Star is Born” (2018). In “House of Gucci,” Lady Gaga portrays an ambitious Italian socialite who marries into the Gucci family. As their legacy begins to unravel, they find themselves confronted with betrayal, revenge and murder.

Colman’s performance as Leda in “The Lost Daughter” comes in fourth place with 11/2 odds. This would be the Oscar winner’s fifth individual SAG Awards nomination and eighth overall. After her first bid for Film Actress in “The Favourite” (2018), Colman hit a hot streak in television and earned two bids for TV Drama Actress in “The Crown” (2020-2021) along with two wins for TV Drama Ensemble for the same Netflix series. She earned additional nods for TV Comedy Ensemble for “Fleabag” in 2020 and Film Supporting Actress for “The Father” last year. In “The Lost Daughter,” Colman portrays a woman whose beach vacation takes a dark turn when she begins to confront the troubles of her past.

Kidman’s performance as Lucille Ball in “Being the Ricardos” comes in fifth place with 6/1 odds. This would be Kidman’s 10th individual SAG Awards nomination and 15th overall. Out of Kidman’s 14 nominations, she has only prevailed once for TV Movie/Mini Actress in “Big Little Lies” (2017). Her 13 unsuccessful bids included Film Ensembles “Moulin Rouge!” (2001), “The Hours” (2002), “Nine” (2009) and “Bombshell” (2019). She lost one TV Drama Ensemble for “Big Little Lies” (2019). Prior individual bids include Film Actress for “The Hours” (2002) and “Rabbit Hole” (2010), Film Supporting Actress for “The Paperboy” (2012), “Lion” (2016) and “Bombshell” (2019) and TV Movie/Mini Actress for “Hemingway & Gellhorn” (2012), “Grace of Monaco” (2014) and “The Undoing” (2020). In “Being the Ricardos,” Kidman takes on the role of comedy giant Lucille Ball as she and her husband Desi (Javier Bardem) face crises that could threaten their careers and their marriage.

Other potential SAG Awards nominees for Film Actress include Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”), Penelope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Rachel Zegler (“West Side Story”), Frances McDormand (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) and Alana Haim (“Licorice Pizza”). Eligible film performances must air or premiere between Mar. 1, 2021 and Dec. 31, 2021

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