The 2021 Screen Actors Guild Awards announce their nominations on Thursday, February 4, for the best achievements in film and television acting from the year 2020, though the COVID-19 pandemic prompted SAG to extend its eligibility window to February 28 just like the Oscars did. So who do we think will prevail? Scroll down for our predictions in five categories (all races except for the stunt ensemble contest) with contenders listed in order of our racetrack odds, with our projected winners highlighted in gold and dark horse contenders for nominations in italics.
Our odds are based on the combined predictions of over 2,700 Gold Derby users as of this writing. That includes Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, the Editors who cover awards for Gold Derby year-round, the Top 24 Users who had the best prediction scores betting on last year’s SAG nominations, and the All-Star Top 24 who had the best forecasts when you combine the last couple of years’ results. But chances are we’ll all be outdone by one of our everyday Users. Check out last year’s highest scorers here.
The SAG Awards often agree with the Oscars when it comes to their acting winners. That may be in large part because both prizes are handed out by industry peers. The Oscars are presented by the thousands of film professionals who make up the motion picture academy, while the SAG Awards are decided by more than 100,000 actors, recording artists, radio personalities, and other media figures who make up the SAG-AFTRA union.
But the award for the best film ensemble only matches Oscar’s best picture about half the time, since these awards focus on acting achievements as opposed to the films as a whole. That said, “Parasite” did win top honors at last year’s SAG Awards, foretelling its ultimate victory at the Oscars. SAG also honored the casts of “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), “Crash” (2005) and “Spotlight” (2015) before those films achieved their Oscar upsets. Will this year’s winner join that list of Oscar champs? Check out our SAG predictions by category below.
Cast in a Motion Picture
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 10/3
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 4/1
“One Night in Miami” — 9/2
“Da 5 Bloods” — 13/2
“Mank” — 9/1
Watch Out For: “Minari” (16/1); “Promising Young Woman” (25/1); “The Prom” (37/1); “Nomadland” (60/1)
Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 10/3
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” — 39/10
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman” — 9/2
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman” — 5/1
Zendaya, “Malcolm and Marie” — 11/1
Watch Out For: Amy Adams, “Hillbilly Elegy” (20/1); Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (33/1); Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead” (66/1)
Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” — 82/25
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father” — 4/1
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal” — 9/2
Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods” — 5/1
Gary Oldman, “Mank” — 7/1
Watch Out For: Steven Yeun, “Minari” (30/1); Kingsley Ben-Adir (30/1); Tom Hanks, “News of the World” (95/1)
Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Olivia Colman, “The Father” — 37/10
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank” — 19/5
Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman” — 5/1
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy” — 6/1
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” — 7/1
Watch Out For: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (12/1); Saoirse Ronan, “Ammonite” (40/1); Dominique Fishback, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (87/1)
Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Leslie Odom Jr., “One Night in Miami” — 37/10
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 9/2
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” — 6/1
Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods” — 6/1
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” — 19/2
Watch Out For: Mark Rylance, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (13/1); Bill Murray, “On the Rocks” (16/1); Glynn Turman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (25/1)
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