Experts SAG Awards predictions slugfest: Will we close in on a supporting actress frontrunner?

It’ll be a Screen Actors Guild Awards ceremony like never before because Sunday’s show is not just over Zoom but it’ll be an hourlong pre-taped show. Will it give us any clarity on two unsettled Oscar races? Will the TV winners be the usual suspects? Will any winners leak? Our editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng are here to discuss that and more. Watch our predictions slugfest above.

In film, we agree on everything except the two female acting categories. Surprise, surprise. The topsy-turvy supporting actress race features four of the five Oscar nominees (sorry, Helena Zengel) and we both made some last-minute changes before the predictions center closed Tuesday when voting closed. We explain why one of us dropped Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) for Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) and the other abandoned Close for Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”). In lead actress, we split with picks for Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) and Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”), the latter of whom would set a new record with three victories in the category, just three years after becoming the first person to earn two.

SEE How will the SAG Awards keep winners from leaking before Sunday?

After Oscar nominations, the ensemble race appears to have narrowed down to two contenders, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” which is favored to win, and “Minari” as they are the only two Best Picture nominees in the lineup. The only non-Best Picture nominee to win ensemble was “The Birdcage” (1996) at the third SAG Awards in the category’s second year of existence. But could something like “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” pull off a surprise?

On the TV side, we agree on everything as we expect to see more of the same champs we’ve seen at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. You know the drill: “Schitt’s Creek,” “The Crown,” Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), Anya Taylor-Joy (“The Queen’s Gambit”). The tightest races may be comedy ensemble between “Schitt’s Creek” and “Ted Lasso” and the all-Netflix battle in drama actress between “Ozark’s” Julia Garner and Laura Linney, and “The Crown’s” Gillian Anderson, Olivia Colman and Emma Corrin. While the odds have Anderson in front, we’re both going with Corrin.

Elsewhere, we ponder a “Bridgerton” upset and wonder how SAG will cram 13 categories and a billion other things into a 46-minute show without commercials.

Oscar predictions for Best Actress
Precursors have gone to different women

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