‘Moulin Rouge!’ and ‘Slave Play’ predicted to dominate the Tony Awards on Sunday

“Moulin Rouge!” and “Slave Play” are predicted to carry the top show categories at the 74th Annual Tony Awards this Sunday, September 26 in a multi-platform ceremony on Paramount+ and CBS. That is according to the combined predictions of expert journalists who cover Broadway year-round, our in-house team of editors and thousands of Gold Derby readers. Scroll down to view a complete breakdown of forecasted wins in all 25 Tonys categories, listed by production. Then be sure to update your own predictions before this Sunday’s big Broadway celebration for a chance to win our prediction contest.

“Moulin Rouge!” is favored to win the coveted Best Musical award. It would be the first “jukebox” musical to take the top prize since “Jersey Boys” in 2006. Tony voters have preferred to reward tuners with original scores since then, but this year there is no such option. All three Best Musical nominees have scores consisting of re-worked pop songs.

Even without the opportunity to contend for Best Score, “Moulin Rouge!” is poised to have a spectacular night. It should easily pick up statues for featured player Danny Burstein (a beloved figure in the theatre industry who is way overdue) and leading man Aaron Tveit (he’s the only nominee in his category). A sexy tango rendition of Lady Gaga’s “Bad Romance” should be enough to earn Sonya Tayeh a win for Choreography and the four-person music team a win for Orchestrations. They are all first-time nominees. We also expect the show to sweep the design categories for its lavish presentation and Alex Timbers will pick up his first directing trophy for weaving it all together. That stacks up for an impressive 10 wins, just two trophies shy of the record setting 12 for “The Producers.”

“Slave Play” is the frontrunner for Best Play after beginning this long Tony season in second place behind Matthew Lopez’s “The Inheritance.” But Jeremy O. Harris’ searing examination of race, power, and trauma feels timely and has staying power. Our odds forecast additional wins for director Robert O’Hara and for Scenic Design. That makes three wins total.

With other acclaimed dramas in competition (including revivals of “Betrayal” and “A Soldier’s Play”), a single digit tally of victories would keep it inline with other recent Best Play winners “Oslo” (2 wins) and “The Ferryman” (4 wins). Slave Play” is hotly competitive in other categories where it ranks a close second including Lead Actress, where Joaquina Kalukango will give Mary-Louise Parker (“The Sound Inside”) a run for her money, and Score, where a non-musical will take the category for the first time in Tony history.

See who else is favored to win on Sunday night below. Do you agree with these predictions?

PREDICT the 2021 Tony winners through September 26

“Moulin Rouge!” (10 awards)
Best Musical
Best Actor (Musical) – Aaron Tveit
Best Featured Actor (Musical) – Danny Burstein
Best Director (Musical) – Alex Timbers
Best Orchestrations
Best Choreography
Best Scenic Design (Musical)
Best Costume Design (Musical)
Best Lighting Design (Musical)
Best Sound Design (Musical)

“Slave Play” (3 awards)
Best Play
Best Director (Play) – Robert O’Hara
Best Scenic Design (Play)

“A Christmas Carol” (2 awards)
Best Musical Score
Best Costume Design (Play)

“The Inheritance” (2 awards)
Best Featured Actress (Play) – Lois Smith
Best Lighting Design (Play)

“Jagged Little Pill” (2 awards)
Best Featured Actress (Musical) – Lauren Patten
Best Book of a Musical

“A Soldier’s Play” (2 awards)
Best Play Revival
Best Featured Actor (Play) – David Alan Grier

“The Sound Inside” (2 awards)
Best Actress (Play) – Mary-Louise Parker
Best Sound Design (Play)

“Betrayal” (1 award)
Best Actor (Play) – Tom Hiddleston

“Tina: The Tina Turner Musical” (1 award)
Best Actress (Musical) – Adrienne Warren

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