“Nomadland” was the front-runner to win the Golden Globe for Best Film Drama before the nominations, but after they were announced on February 3 the film was overtaken by “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” The margin is razor-thin, though. Which way do you think it will go, and do you think this will be the start of a “Trial” surge towards the Best Picture Oscar?
In the nominations round, we gave “Nomadland” leading odds of 17/5 with overwhelming support from the Expert journalists we surveyed: 20 of them said it would win the top prize, compared to six betting on “Chicago” and one predicting “One Night in Miami,” which ultimately wasn’t nominated in the top category.
But now the shoe is on the other foot. After nominations, “Trial” is the favorite with 71/20 odds. It’s backed by eight Experts so far, while “Nomadland” is predicted by five. Only one thinks “Mank” will win even though it’s the most nominated film of the year with six bids. (More Experts will chime in as we get closer to the awards on February 28).
So what changed? Well, “Trial” does have more nominations than “Nomadland” (five to four), but both films received key citations for acting, writing and directing. The only place where “Trial” scored that “Nomadland” missed was Best Original Song, and even if “Nomadland” had an original song, that might not be an especially strong indicator of overall support one way or the other from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
Perhaps that’s why the race is still so close. Though the Experts give “Trial” a significant advantage as of this writing, the two films are dead even with Gold Derby’s Editors, who are split down the middle with four predicting each film. Our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Globe winners, are leaning towards the Aaron Sorkin legal drama just like the Experts (12 predicting “Trial,” 9 predicting “Nomadland”).
But our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest predictions scores when you combine the last couple of years’ results, still give the very slight edge to the Chloe Zhao indie drama (11 for “Nomadland,” 10 for “Trial”). So this race is far from a done deal. Do you think “Trial” or “Nomadland” will win? Or might we be underestimating “Mank,” “Promising Young Woman” or “The Father”?
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