Back on December 11, Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) ranked seventh in our overall Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actor, based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. But what a difference a week or so makes. As of this writing Kotsur has risen to fourth place with 8/1 odds. He’s virtually tied with Jamie Dornan (“Belfast”), who himself has seen a meteoric rise to third place, also with 8/1 odds.
It’s not often that you see deaf actors in prominent movie roles, but “CODA” cast such actors for the role of a deaf family (Kotsur and Marlee Matlin as the parents, Daniel Durant as their adult son), whose hearing daughter (Emilia Jones) wants to pursue dreams outside of the family fishing business. We knew early on that Matlin would be an Oscar contender given that she already had a high profile in the industry; she won the Best Actress Oscar for 1986’s “Children of a Lesser God,” for which she still holds the record as the youngest winner ever in that category at age 21.
But Kotsur took many by surprise, similar to other under-the-radar actors in recent years who built momentum through word-of-mouth and earned Oscar nominations, like Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips”) and Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”). Kotsur has already won a Gotham Award for his performance, in addition to recent nominations from the Independent Spirit Awards and Critics Choice Awards, which surely contributed to his sharp spike in our odds.
Among those betting on Kotsur for a nomination are 15 of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed, among whom Tim Gray (Variety) is predicting that he’ll win. Among Gold Derby Editors, six are predicting a nomination for Kotsur, with Charlie Bright predicting him to win. Have you gotten jumped on the Kotsur bandwagon too?
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