The Best Supporting Actress Oscar race has been in flux all season, but the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards may have clarified things a bit. Yuh-Jung Youn won for her role as the loving grandmother of a Korean immigrant family in “Minari,” and it looks like she’s going to win again at the BAFTA Awards on the weekend of April 10. But as with everything else this awards season, it’s far from an open-and-shut case.
Youn gets leading odds of 69/20 as of this writing based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Among those betting on her are eight of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, six of the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, 13 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s BAFTA winners, and 16 of the All-Star Top 24 who had the most accurate predictions when you combine the last two years’ BAFTA results.
This year’s season-long Best Supporting Actress race has been uncertain. Youn cleaned up during at critics’ awards, winning prizes from journalists in Austin, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco, among others. But then she was snubbed at the Golden Globes, where Jodie Foster won Best Film Supporting Actress for “The Mauritanian” but wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars. Youn was nominated at Critics Choice, but lost to fellow critical darling Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”).
Youn’s SAG Awards victory was especially crucial, though, since it’s an industry peer-group award just like the Oscars are; nine of the last 10 supporting actress winners at SAG have repeated at the Oscars. And she’ll look even stronger if she wins Best Supporting Actress at the BAFTAs since voting for Oscar winners starts on April 15, just a few days after those awards are handed out.
And she might have even more of a leg up at the BAFTAs since they decided their nominees with small juries that leveled the playing field for more under-the-radar candidates. As a result, Youn is one of only two Oscar nominees in the BAFTAs’ Best Supporting Actress lineup, along with Bakalova. Their high profiles could give them an advantage with the general British academy membership picking the winners. But a lot of our Top Users and All-Stars think Bakalova will be the one who benefits, not Youn. Do you agree that this will be a close two-way race, or could we see an upset just like we saw in those eclectic nominations?
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