Gotham Awards predictions: ‘Everything Everywhere,’ ‘TAR’ and ‘Aftersun’ will rule tonight

The 2022 Gotham Awards for American independent film will be handed out tonight during a live streaming ceremony taking place at Cipriani Wall Street in New York City at 8:00pm Eastern/5:00pm Pacific. Nominations were chosen by committees of film and television critics, journalists, festival programmers, and film curators. Then the winners were selected by separate juries of writers, directors, actors, producers, editors, and others directly involved in the industry. Scroll down for our official racetrack odds in every category with our projected winners highlighted in gold.

Our predictions were generated by combining the forecasts of over 1,000 Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. That includes the Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Gotham winners, and the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine results from the last two years.

And based on those predictions, the interdimensional action dramedy “Everything Everywhere All at Once” will be named Best Feature, in addition to claiming acting kudos for Ke Huy Quan in the all-gender-inclusive Best Supporting Performance category. But it’s not the only film we’re betting on to double up. “TAR” gets best odds to claim Best Screenplay and Best Lead Performance for Cate Blanchett, while “Aftersun” is favored for Best Breakthrough Director and Best Breakthrough Performer for Frankie Corio.

Who else will take home prizes tonight? Check out our official odds below, and make or update your own predictions here before winners are announced tonight.

FILM

BEST FEATURE
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 17/5
“TAR” — 18/5
“Aftersun” — 4/1
“Dos Estaciones” — 9/2
“The Cathedral” — 9/2

BEST DOCUMENTARY
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” — 10/3
“All That Breathes” — 19/5
“The Territory” — 4/1
“I Didn’t See You There” — 9/2
“What We Leave Behind” — 9/2

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“The Banshees of Inisherin” — 71/20
“Decision to Leave” — 4/1
“Saint Omer” — 9/2
“Happening” — 6/1
“Athena” — 13/2
“Corsage” — 13/2

BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD
“Aftersun” — 10/3
“The Inspection” — 4/1
“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair” — 5/1
“Funny Pages” — 6/1
“Murina” — 6/1
“Soft and Quiet” — 7/1

BEST SCREENPLAY
“TAR” — 17/5
“Women Talking” — 71/20
“Armageddon Time” — 9/2
“After Yang” — 9/2
“Catherine Called Birdy” — 9/2

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Cate Blanchett, “TAR” — 13/2
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 7/1
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” — 15/2
Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” — 8/1
Paul Mescal, “Aftersun” — 17/2
Taylor Russell, “Bones and All” — 19/2
Colin Farrell, “After Yang” — 10/1
Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” — 11/1
Aubrey Plaza, “Emily the Criminal” — 13/1
Thandiwe Newton, “God’s Country” — 14/1

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 6/1
Jessie Buckley, “Women Talking” — 7/1
Hong Chau, “The Whale” — 8/1
Nina Hoss, “TAR” — 8/1
Ben Whishaw, “Women Talking” — 17/2
Gabrielle Union, “The Inspection” — 19/2
Mark Rylance, “Bones and All” — 10/1
Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway” — 11/1
Noemie Merlant, “TAR” — 12/1
Raul Castillo, “The Inspection” — 14/1

BEST BREAKTTHROUGH PERFORMER
Frankie Corio, “Aftersun” — 82/25
Anna Diop, “Nanny” — 39/10
Kalie Reis, “Catch the Fair One” — 4/1
Gracija Filipovic, “Murina” — 9/2
Anna Cobb, “We’re All Going to the World’s Fair” — 9/2

TELEVISION

BEST BREAKTHROUGH SERIES (LONG FORM)
“Severance” — 82/25
“Yellowjackets” — 4/1
“Station Eleven” — 4/1
“Pachinko” — 9/2
“This is Going to Hurt” — 9/2

BEST BREAKTHROUGH SERIES (SHORT FORM)
“Abbott Elementary” — 16/5
“Somebody Somewhere” — 39/10
“As We See It” — 9/2
“Rap Sh!t” — 9/2
“Mo” — 9/2

BEST BREAKTHROUGH NONFICTION SERIES
“The Rehearsal” — 17/5
“We Need to Talk About Cosby” — 39/10
“The Last Movie Stars” — 4/1
“The Andy Warhol Diaries” — 9/2
“Mind Over Murder” — 9/2

BEST PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SERIES
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets” — 13/2
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” — 15/2
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” — 15/2
Ben Whishaw, “This is Going to Hurt” — 8/1
Britt Lower, “Severance” — 17/2
Minha Kim, “Pachinko” — 19/2
Matilda Lawler, “Station Eleven” — 10/1
Bilal Baig, “Sort Of” — 23/2
Sue Ann Pien, “As We See It” — 12/1
Zahn McClarnon, “Dark Winds” — 13/1

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