Oscar Experts predictions slugfest: Breaking down PGA, DGA, WGA and ACE snubs and surprises

Thursday, Jan. 27 was the first day of Oscar nomination voting and D-Day — or rather, G-Day. Four top guilds unveiled nominations — producers, directors, writers and editors — and it was a doozy. Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng are here to dissect the snubs, surprises and more.

The Producers Guild of America Awards kicked things off with a bang, nominating “Being the Ricardos” in its top 10 slate. We’ve been looking for a film to fill out that 10th spot, so is it actually “Ricardos” — a movie that is clearly more embraced by the industry than critics and Film Twitter? If nothing else, this boosts Nicole Kidman‘s candidacy in the murky Best Actress race after Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) took a hit with her Screen Actors Guild Awards snub.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about the PGA noms is that the group eschewed moneymakers like “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “No Time to Die” and “House of Gucci.” So what gives? Conventional wisdom would say all three are cooked in the Best Picture Oscar race, but what about fringe contenders like “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” “The Lost Daughter” and “Nightmare Alley”?

SEE Full list of PGA nominations

While some films like “The Power of the Dog,” “Belfast” (both of which were ineligible at the Writers Guild of America Awards), “Licorice Pizza” and “Tick, Tick… Boom!” had a good day, “West Side Story” had a bumpy one, missing at the ACE Eddies, where it was classified as a drama. The musical rebounded with a Directors Guild of America Award bid for Steven Spielberg, but it also missed earlier in the week at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards. Are these just flukes or something more?

Elsewhere, we debate who could disrupt the consensus five directing nominees, campaign for our faves Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”) and Mike Faist (“West Side Story”), and are not mad about “Succession’s” DGA domination.

Oscar odds for Best Picture
What will win?

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?


More News from GoldDerby