PGA Awards nominations: Is this the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars?

The Producers Guild of America Awards announced its nominees for Best Picture on Thursday (January 27), just hours after Oscar nominations voting began. The 10 contenders are: “Being the Ricardos,” “Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “The Power of the Dog,” “tick, tick… Boom!” and “West Side Story.”

All of these with the exception of “Being the Ricardos” number among the Top 10 contenders we are predicting will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. Expect that biopic to rise in the ranks in the coming days given the success rate of the guild in previewing the eventual Oscar nominees. Conversely, the films we have jockeying for that last slot in the Oscar lineup — The Tragedy of Macbeth” and “Nightmare Alley” — were snubbed by the PGA and could well fall.

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When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2010, the Producers Guild of America followed suit. While the academy shifted to a sliding scale in 2012, the PGA Awards stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster.

Indeed, the guild has predicted 94 of the 106 (i.e., 89%) of the Best Picture nominees over the dozen years. In the 32-year history of the awards, its pick for best pic has gone on to take home the top Academy Award a whopping 22 times.

The five Best Animated Feature nominees at the PGA Awards mirror our predicted Oscar contenders: “Encanto,” “Luca,” “The Mitchells vs the Machines,” “Raya and the Last Dragon” and “Sing 2.”

The PGA Awards will be handed out in on March 19. That is in the middle of voting for the Oscar winners. The 94th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 27.

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