Tony predictions by show: ‘Company’ will lead with 6, ‘A Strange Loop’ and ‘The Lehman Trilogy’ to take 5

Director Marianne Elliott’s reimagining of Stephen Sondheim’s legendary musical “Company” will win the most Tony Awards, according to our official odds in all 26 categories. The contemporary take on one of the esteemed composer’s earliest works will take home six awards, besting by one the groundbreaking new musical “A Strange Loop” and the epic play “The Lehman Trilogy,” which will both claim five.

These official odds for the Tonys are derived from the predictions of our Experts who write about theatre year-round, our in-house team of Editors, the Top 24 Users who did the best predicting last year’s ceremony, the All-Star Top 24 Users who have the highest scores when you combine predictions from the last two years, and all our Users who make the up the largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.

Below, we break down the predicted winners by show, ranked by the number of Tonys it will win. Make or edit your own predictions until 6:00pm ET the evening of the ceremony on Sunday, June 12. The Tonys will air a one-hour special, “The Tony Awards: Act One,” hosted by current stage stars Darren Criss (“American Buffalo”) and Julianne Hough (“POTUS”) on Paramount+ at 7:00pm ET. Tony nominee and Oscar winner Ariana DeBose takes over for the main ceremony at 8:00pm ET on CBS.


Best Musical Revival — 13/10
Best Featured Actress (Patti LuPone) — 82/25
Best Featured Actor (Matt Doyle) — 31/10
Best Director — 82/25
Best Scenic Design — 82/25
Best Lighting Design — 71/20

A Strange Loop
Best Musical — 82/25
Best Actor (Jaquel Spivey) — 31/10
Best Original Score — 16/5
Best Musical Book — 31/10
Best Orchestrations — 82/25

Best Costume Design — 18/5
Best Sound Design — 69/20

Caroline, or Change
Best Actress (Sharon D. Clarke) — 16/5

MJ the Musical
Best Choreography — 16/5

We predict these nominated musicals and revivals will go home empty-handed: “Diana, the Musical,” “Flying Over Sunset,” “Girl From the North Country,” “Mr. Saturday Night, “Mrs. Doubtfire,” “The Music Man,” and “Paradise Square.”


The Lehman Trilogy
Best Play — 31/10
Best Director — 31/10
Best Scenic Design — 69/20
Best Lighting Design — 31/10
Best Sound Design — 82/25

How I Learned to Drive
Best Actress (Mary-Louise Parker) — 82/25
Best Actor (David Morse) — 5/1

Take Me Out
Best Play Revival — 17/5
Best Featured Actor (Jesse Tyler Ferguson) — 71/20

for colored girls
Best Featured Actress (Kenita R. Miller) — 69/20

The Skin of Our Teeth
Best Costume Design — 16/5

We predict these nominated plays and revivals will go home empty-handed: “American Buffalo,” “Clyde’s,” “Dana H.,” “Hangmen,” “The Minutes,” “Skeleton Crew,” and “Trouble in Mind.”

PREDICT the 2022 Tony Awards now through June 12

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