Two musical revivals will dominate the 2022 Tony Awards nominations, according to our official odds in 17 of the 25 categories. “Company” and “The Music Man” will each earn at least seven bids apiece when the nominations are announced on Monday, May 9. Original musical “A Strange Loop” will likely earn at least six nominations. “The Lehman Trilogy” will likely lead the new plays with at least four bids, and revivals “Take Me Out” and “Trouble In Mind” will also earn four or more bids each, too.
These official odds are derived from 2022 Tony predictions by our Experts who write about theatre year-round, our in-house team of Editors, and all Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Below, we break down the predicted nominees by show, ranked by the number of nominations. Make or edit your own predictions before the nominations are unveiled on Monday morning.
MUSICALS
Company
Best Musical Revival – 15/8
Best Actress (Katrina Lenk) – 11/2
Best Featured Actress (Patti LuPone) – 4/1
Best Featured Actress (Jennifer Simard) – 15/2
Best Featured Actor (Matt Doyle) – 4/1
Best Featured Actor (Claybourne Elder) – 15/2
Best Director – 9/2
The Music Man
Best Musical Revival – 69/20
Best Actress (Sutton Foster) – 11/2
Best Actor (Hugh Jackman) – 5/1
Best Featured Actress (Jayne Houdyshell) – 8/1
Best Featured Actor (Jefferson Mays) – 7/1
Best Director – 17/2
Best Choreography – 6/1
A Strange Loop
Best Musical – 4/1
Best Actor (Jacquel Spivey) – 9/2
Best Featured Actor (John-Andrew Morrison) – 13/2
Best Director – 5/1
Best Score – 9/2
Best Book – 4/1
Girl From the North Country
Best Musical – 11/2
Best Actress (Mare Winningham) – 15/2
Best Featured Actress (Jeannette Bayardelle) – 21/2
Best Director – 7/1
Best Book – 5/1
SIX
Best Musical – 9/2
Best Director – 11/2
Best Score – 9/2
Best Book – 11/2
Best Choreography – 11/2
Mr. Saturday Night
Best Musical – 13/2
Best Actor (Billy Crystal) – 11/2
Best Featured Actor (David Paymer) – 17/2
Best Score – 6/1
Best Book – 6/1
Flying Over Sunset
Best Musical – 9/1
Best Score – 11/2
Best Book – 8/1
Paradise Square
Best Actress (Joaquina Kalukango) – 15/2
Best Score – 13/2
Best Choreography – 6/1
Caroline, or Change
Best Musical Revival – 4/1
Best Actress (Sharon D Clarke) – 9/2
Funny Girl
Best Featured Actress (Jane Lynch) – 6/1
Best Choreography – 11/1
MJ The Musical
Best Actor (Myles Frost) – 7/1
Best Choreography – 4/1
Mrs. Doubtfire
Best Actor (Rob McClure) – 6/1
PLAYS
The Lehman Trilogy
Best Play – 4/1
Best Actor (Simon Russell Beale) – 5/1
Best Actor (Adam Godley) – 15/2
Best Director – 4/1
Take Me Out
Best Play Revival – 9/2
Best Featured Actor (Jesse Tyler Ferguson) – 11/2
Best Featured Actor (Michael Oberholtzer) – 17/2
Best Director – 6/1
Trouble in Mind
Best Play Revival – 6/1
Best Actress (LaChanze) – 6/1
Best Featured Actress (Jessica Frances Dukes) – 10/1
Best Featured Actor (Chuck Cooper) – 5/1
for colored girls
Best Play Revival – 5/1
Best Featured Actress (Kenita R. Miller) – 9/2
Best Director – 13/2
Hangmen
Best Play – 5/1
Best Featured Actor (Alfie Allen) – 13/2
Best Director – 11/2
How I Learned to Drive
Best Play Revival – 5/1
Best Actress (Mary-Louise Parker) – 4/1
Best Actor (David Morse) – 9/2
Macbeth
Best Actress (Ruth Negga) – 11/2
Best Actor (Daniel Craig) – 13/1
Best Featured Actress (Amber Gray) – 15/2
The Minutes
Best Play – 11/2
Best Featured Actor (Austin Pendleton) – 17/2
Best Director – 11/1
American Buffalo
Best Play Revival – 14/1
Best Actor (Sam Rockwell) – 21/2
Skeleton Crew
Best Play – 15/2
Best Featured Actress (Phylicia Rashad) – 7/1
Clyde’s
Best Featured Actress (Uzo Aduba) – 5/1
Dana H.
Best Actress (Deidre O’Connell) – 11/2
The Skin of Our Teeth
Best Actress (Gabby Beans) – 14/1
Thoughts of a Colored Man
Best Play – 21/2
The other eligible productions this season include new plays “Pass Over,” “Chicken & Biscuits,” “Is This a Room,” “Birthday Candles,” and “POTUS,” new musical “Diana, The Musical,” and revivals “Lackawanna Blues,” and “Plaza Suite.”
PREDICT the 2022 Tony Awards nominees now through May 9
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