How ‘Abbott Elementary’ would be the next ‘Modern Family’ or ‘Glee’ with a comedy series Emmy nomination

Abbott Elementary” is seeing the kind of breakout success that most broadcast networks can only dream about anymore. While critical consensus and awards voters have gravitated toward streaming and cable shows in the last decade, the ABC sitcom is proving that there’s still excellence blossoming on the Big Four networks. The mockumentary-style comedy, starring and created by Quinta Brunson, tells the story of a group of hardworking teachers who populate an underfunded elementary school, led by a blundering principal. Critics and audiences have latched onto the underdog series to such an extent that it could do what no broadcast comedy has done at the Emmys in over a decade.

If “Abbott Elementary” has the passion to land a Best Comedy Series nomination, it would be the first broadcast sitcom to do so for its first season since 2010. That year marked the arrival of two shows that share some DNA with “Abbott Elementary”: the ABC mockumentary “Modern Family” and the school-set Fox dramedy “Glee.” Both shows exploded with Emmy nominations for their respective first seasons, including one for Best Comedy Series, with “Modern Family” ultimately triumphing for its first of five consecutive series wins.

SEE ‘Abbott Elementary’ could net overdue Sheryl Lee Ralph her first Emmy nomination

No broadcast comedy has broken through for its first season since then, not even network shows that scored multiple bids in the top category in the 2010s like CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory,” ABC’s “Black-ish” or NBC’s “The Good Place” and “Parks and Recreation.” The 2010s and early 2020s have been dominated by cable and streaming shows, which have eaten up most of the nomination slots in Best Comedy Series, with no broadcast show winning since “Modern Family” in 2014.

So what are the chances that “Abbott Elementary” actually pulls off the comedy series nomination? According to the latest Gold Derby odds, it is in seventh place in the top category, which is enough for a nomination in a field of eight. The freshman comedy faces an onslaught of returning favorites, including past series champs like “Ted Lasso” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and other Emmy-winning series like “Hacks,” “Barry” and “Atlanta.” But if enough Emmy voters watch “Abbott Elementary,” it could very easily find its place among those top dogs as the little show that could.

Emmy odds for Best Comedy Series
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