It’s good to be “Being the Ricardos” right now. On the back of its Producers Guild of America Award nomination on Thursday, the Amazon Prime film has scaled to the 10th spot in the Best Picture Oscar odds.
Just how big of a boost was that PGA nomination? Prior to that, “Being the Ricardos” was down in 15th place. It has now jumped over “House of Gucci,” “The Lost Daughter,” “Nightmare Alley,” “Drive My Car” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” with whom it actually has even odds (37/1). These are all films that have had comparatively more hype, acclaim, box office and/or awards wins than “Being the Ricardos” thus far. But maybe, like Lucy, it will have the last laugh.
With the Best Picture lineup returning to a solid 10 for the first time in 11 years, “Being the Ricardos'” chances of making the cut are greater. Still, it’s by no means a lock. The rest of the predicted lineup — “The Power of the Dog,” “Belfast,” “West Side Story,” “Dune,” “Licorice Pizza,” “King Richard,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up” and “Tick, Tick… Boom!” — matches the PGA slate exactly, but will the entire top 10 actually transfer over to the Oscars? It never happened in the first two years of the preferential ballot era when the Oscars had a hard Best Picture 10.
SEE Oscar Experts predictions slugfest: Breaking down the PGA, DGA, WGA and ACE surprises and snubs
Twelve years ago, PGA and the Oscars mismatched two movies in their respective top 10s: The former nominated “Invictus” and “Star Trek,” while the latter went with “The Blind Side” and “A Serious Man.” The following year, PGA went nine for 10, with “The Town” missing for the Oscar-nominated “Winter’s Bone.” And in the years of the sliding scale in between, it wasn’t like eight or nine PGA nominees always made it through and the Oscars just dropped one or two PGA picks. Last year, the academy agreed on seven PGA nominees, dumping “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night in Miami,” and added the PGA-snubbed “The Father.”
History suggests chances are not all 10 PGA nominees will hit the Oscars, but that also doesn’t necessarily mean it will be “Being the Ricardos” that misses, even though it’s in the shakiest spot and was hardly predicted pre-PGA. The film has clearly resonated more with the industry — it is about the production of a beloved TV show — than with critics and audiences, with whom it’s generated mixed-positive reviews. And it stars the potential Best Actress winner. Nicole Kidman has climbed from third to second in the odds for her turn as Lucille Ball over the past two weeks, during which she and her co-star Javier Bardem scored Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations and former frontrunner Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) did not. Kidman is neck and neck with current No. 1 Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”) and may overtake her any second.
So if “Being the Ricardos” makes it and PGA and the Oscars don’t match, then what misses? And for what?
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