Is it finally time for Bill Hader to win his first SAG Award for ‘Barry’?

Although he has won two Best Comedy Actor Emmys for HBO’s “Barry,” Bill Hader has yet to be similarly honored by his peers in the Screen Actors Guild. However, following unsuccessful solo SAG Award nominations in 2019 and 2020, he now has a shot at proving the third time’s the charm. He not only ranks first in Gold Derby’s Best Comedy Actor SAG Award predictions, but also has a statistical advantage in that, more often than not, first-time champs in this category win after their shows have lasted for three or more seasons.

Based on our SAG Awards odds, Hader’s strongest challengers in this individual race are two pairs of costars: Steve Martin and Martin Short of “Only Murders in the Building” and Jason Sudeikis and Brett Goldstein of “Ted Lasso.” All four men just vied for the 2022 Best Comedy Actor SAG prize, which ultimately went to Sudeikis. In order for him and Goldstein to make it into the next lineup, the upcoming third season of “Ted Lasso” will have to drop before the end of the calendar year. Our current odds indicate that, if they are ultimately disqualified for missing the deadline, the void will be filled by SAG Award newcomers Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) and Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”).

Even if Hader does end up having to face two-time Best Comedy Actor winner Sudeikis (to whom he just lost at the 2022 Emmys), he will still be in a more advantageous position compared to his first two SAG Award outings. This is largely due to the fact that the man who beat him twice – Tony Shalhoub (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) – is not expected to even be nominated this time. His ninth place position in our predictions reflects the general waning interest in “Maisel” compared to “Barry,” despite the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic forced each show to take a two-year hiatus.

The tables also seem to have similarly turned in the Best Comedy Ensemble category, as our odds show “Barry” (fifth place) outpacing “Maisel” (seventh) despite having lost to it here in 2019 and 2020. The cast of “Abbott Elementary” are running first in this race, followed in order by those of “Hacks,” “Only Murders in the Building” and “Ted Lasso.” While it is true that most Best Comedy Ensemble victories are accompanied by at least one individual win, the guild has also been known to spread the love, such as when they gave only the group prize to “Orange is the New Black” in 2017 and “Modern Family” from 2011 to 2013.

SEE ‘Abbott Elementary’ poised to dominate the SAG Awards

Whatever the reasons are for him coming up short before, the time appears right for Hader to finally get his hands on a SAG trophy. Given that it is highly irregular for a male comedy series lead to score Emmy and SAG wins during a single awards season, there may be a silver lining to his recent acting Emmy loss after all.

Nominations for the 29th SAG Awards will be announced on Wednesday, January 11 with the ceremony following on Sunday, February 26. The awards are expected to be televised, although the organization has yet to partner with a new network after reaching the end of their decades-long deal with TNT and TBS.

PREDICT the 2023 SAG Awards nominees through January 10

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