Box office: After surging past ‘Avatar,’ ‘Spider-Man’ sets sights on dethroning ‘Avengers: Endgame’

This week, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” officially surged past “Avatar” to become the third highest-grossing movie ever on the all-time domestic list. “Avatar’s” total U.S. haul from 2009 and ’10 was $760.5 million, a number that Spidey just matched on Valentine’s Day. Can “Spider-Man: No Way Home” now dethrone “Avengers: Endgame” to become the new #2 at the box office?

As of this writing, the Tom Holland starrer has $762 million in the bank, while “Avengers: Endgame” (which featured Holland’s character in a minor role) finished at $858 million stateside back in 2019. However, there’s a big asterisk with those numbers. It only took “Endgame” 23 days to hit the $760 million mark, compared to 60 days for “No Way Home” and 81 days for “Avatar.” With signs of a Spider-Man slow-down, it seems unlikely “Endgame’s” numbers will be matched any time soon.

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Right now at Gold Derby, you can predict which movies will earn the #1 through #5 spots at the U.S. box office for this weekend, February 18 – February 20. You can also forecast how much money the weekend’s highest-grossing film will rake in. Hurry — the cutoff time is Thursday at 6 p.m. PT. Each week the eligible user with the highest prediction accuracy will win a $100 Amazon gift card, eternal bragging rights and a spot on our box office 2022 leaderboard.

Last week, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” nabbed a single Oscar bid for Best Visual Effects. That’s the same lone category that “Avengers: Endgame” found itself in two years ago (it lost to “1917”). To compare, “Avatar” won three Oscars (cinematography, visual effects and art direction) and was nominated for six more, including picture and director.

The #1 movie on the all-time domestic list is still 2015’s “Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens,” which took in a whopping $936 million. This long-awaited sequel was a five-time Oscar nominee for film editing, music, sound mixing, sound editing and visual effects.

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How much money will Spidey add to its total this weekend? Here are Gold Derby’s box office predictions for February 18 – February 20:

What movie will be #1 at U.S. box office?
1st choice: “Uncharted”
2nd choice: “Spider-Man: No Way Home”
3rd choice: “Death on the Nile”

How much money will the #1 movie make?
1st choice: $25 million – $50 million
2nd choice: Less than $25 million
3rd choice: More than $100 million

What movie will be #2 at U.S. box office?
1st choice: “Dog”
2nd choice: “Death on the Nile”
3rd choice: “Uncharted”

What movie will be #3 at U.S. box office?
1st choice: “Death on the Nile”
2nd choice: “Dog”
3rd choice: “Marry Me”

What movie will be #4 at U.S. box office?
1st choice: “Spider-Man: No Way Home”
2nd choice: “Jackass Forever”
3rd choice: “Marry Me”

What movie will be #5 at U.S. box office?
1st choice: “Marry Me”
2nd choice: “Spider-Man: No Way Home”
3rd choice: “Jackass Forever”

It’s free to register for an account via email, Facebook, Google or Twitter, so what are you waiting for? Be sure to make your predictions to influence our box office racetrack odds. You can keep changing them throughout the week until the cutoff time on Thursday at 6 p.m. PT. Financial numbers and rankings are based upon weekend data (Friday-Saturday-Sunday) featured at Variety Insight. (See our contest rules.) Sound off with other fans in our movie forum.

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