Nearly 3,500 people predicted the SAG Awards film nominations at Gold Derby, and Ryan Lapierre came out on top with an eye-popping 80% accuracy score. (View the leaderboard to see what he got right and wrong.) Since this user is eligible for Gold Derby prizes, he’ll receive a $100 Amazon gift card for winning our contest. Lapierre was the only person to correctly pick 20 of the 25 nominees on the film side, with his proudest accomplishment being going five-for-five in the ensemble cast category: “Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “King Richard” and “House of Gucci.” Those first four nominees weren’t surprises, but “House of Gucci” was way down in ninth place in our racetrack odds, so what made Lapierre predict it?
“Going big on ‘House of Gucci’ [helped] put my score over the edge,” Lapierre reveals to Gold Derby. “‘House of Gucci’ is an audience favorite, and its box office performance proved that it was watched by many. It being one of the more popular movies in the race, plus its star-studded cast, made me predict it for ensemble, Lady Gaga in best actress and Jared Leto in supporting actor.”
Another feather in Lapierre’s cap was putting Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”) in his supporting actor lineup. “When Ben Affleck got into the Golden Globes, I had a strong feeling that SAG was next,” he confesses. “Affleck has been getting career best notices, and this performance is winning people over. SAG often gravitates towards big names, and Affleck still has enough respect in the industry to receive these major nominations. He also has had a fantastic past couple years with ‘The Way Back’ and ‘The Last Duel.'”
As for why he predicted “Don’t Look Up,” Lapierre explains, “Obviously because it has one of the biggest ensembles of the year, but it also peaked at the right time. ‘Don’t Look Up’ is now the second most watched movie on Netflix’s platform. It was a HUGE hit, so I had a hard time seeing them snub it.” Watch Gold Derby’s recent interview with writer/director Adam McKay.
The other three cast nominees are “King Richard,” “CODA” and “Belfast.” Says Lapierre, “I went with ‘King Richard’ because there are plenty of respected actors in the film, plus the breakout performances of Saniyya Sidney and Demi Singleton as Venus and Serena Williams. I picked ‘CODA’ because it has been in a really good place in this awards season as of late. It reminds me of how ‘Minari’ so easily won people over. This film has been praised for its deaf representation, and with Troy Kotsur getting supporting actor buzz, plus the rest of the incredible cast, it was the film I was most confident was getting nominated. I went with ‘Belfast’ because it has been one of the top contenders to possibly take home best picture at the Oscars. Like ‘CODA,’ ‘Belfast’ is a movie that has been winning so many people over, and a large part of that is because of this cast. They have their own individual moments to shine, and each actor is perfectly cast in their roles.”
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