Latin Grammys Song of the Year predictions: Will one of the year’s biggest hits win the biggest songwriting prize?

The 2022 Latin Grammy nominations were announced on September 20, with the awards going out November 17. So who will win Latin music’s top songwriting award, Song of the Year?

Let’s go through the process of elimination here. Ricky Martin‘s “A Veces Bien y A Veces Mal,” Daddy Yankee‘s “Agua,” and Mon Laferte‘s “Algo Es Mejor” are probably here in part due to being alphabetically high on the ballot, and since none of them made much noise, they will likely not win. While Carla Morrison and Fonseca are both highly respected artists, their respective songs “Encontrarme” and “Besos En La Frente” also didn’t really make much of an impact. Those five are likely the filler nominees.

A few other nominees have a slight chance. “Hentai” by Rosalía might be too polarizing for most voters, being an experimental, sexual song and very controversial when it dropped. Meanwhile, though Christina Aguilera got a lot of nominations, I wonder if “Pa Mis Muchachas” has enough appeal to actually pull off a win against some academy darlings and/or bigger hits. Finally, while it’s totally possible for him to win, Carlos Vives seems to be one of those always-nominated-rarely-winning artists in the general field, so I wouldn’t place his Camilo collab “Baloncito Viejo” very high.

The remaining four are where it gets tricky. “Índigo” was a big hit in Latin America, and its sentimental value (it’s a song dedicated to Camilo and Evaluna Montaner‘s child) could help its case. However, “Tacones Rojos” is also a big hit, and Sebastián Yatra has had a bigger year than Camilo, with his album “Dharma” being the second most streamed Latin album of the year.

But I’ll make a bold prediction and say it is between the biggest hit — Karol G‘s “Provenza” — and the biggest academy darling — Jorge Drexler, who is a previous winner in this category and has been nominated seven times. This year he’s nominated for “Tocarte” featuring C. Tangana. Knowing that the Grammys love rewarding their favorites, I’ll go with “Tocarte” here for my final prediction, but there is a precedent for “Provenza” here. Big crossover hits like Pedro Capó‘s “Calma” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee‘s “Despacito” have won here before.

Likely winner: Jorge Drexler and C. Tangana, “Tocarte”
Likeliest upset: Karol G, “Provenza”
Dark horse: Camilo and Evaluna, “Índigo”

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