Nicole Kidman predicted to finally win a SAG Award for a film role by playing a TV icon

Of Nicole Kidman‘s 15 Screen Actors Guild Awards nominations over her career, 10 of them have been for film, but she has yet to win for her big-screen work as her sole victory came in 2018 for “Big Little Lies.” That looks like it will change this year with the “Being the Ricardos” star sitting in first place in our lead actress odds.

Kidman currently leads with 71/20 odds with six Experts and three editors forecasting a victory for her turn as Lucille Ball in the Aaron Sorkin film. However, this is by no means a landslide pick as four of the nominees in this biopic-heavy slate all have supporters. Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) is in second at 19/5 odds with two Experts and five editors in her corner. Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) is third (4/1 odds, two Experts and editors each) and “The Lost Daughter’s” Olivia Colman — the sole nominee who plays a fictional character — is fourth (4/1 odds, two Experts and one editor). Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”) rounds out the quintet with 9/2 odds.

SEE Full list of SAG Awards nominations

Of the nominees, Gaga’s film performed the best overall as “Gucci” earned bids for Jared Leto and in ensemble. Chastain, Colman and Hudson are the only nominees for their films, while Kidman’s co-star Javier Bardem, the Desi Arnaz to her Ball, made the lead actor lineup. Though “Being the Ricardos” was snubbed in ensemble, it is a very actor-friendly film, covering one week of production of “I Love Lucy,” and the rapturous reception at screenings in the fall suggested it would play well with the industry. Kidman, in particular, was also vindicated as her performance, capturing the spirit of the legendary comedienne, was well-received after social media backlash over her lack of physical resemblance to Ball.

The SAG Awards also threw a major curveball in the category by snubbing former Oscar favorite Kristen Stewart. While Stewart was always vulnerable for the win at SAG due to the polarizing nature of “Spencer,” few thought she’d be left off the final five entirely. But her absence has made the path here clearer for the women who were trailing her this entire season in the Oscar race (in the Oscar odds, Stewart has dropped to third, with Colman and Kidman ahead of her).

Despite her meager win conversion rate, Kidman is a SAG Awards favorite. Save for 2019, the Oscar winner has been nominated every year since 2016. The makeup of her 15 nominations is 10 individual bids and five as part of the ensembles of “Moulin Rouge!” (2001), “The Hours” (2002), “Nine” (2009), “Bombshell” (2019) and “Big Little Lies” (when it competed as a drama for its second season in 2020). Maybe it’ll take a movie about a beloved TV star for voters to show how much they really love her.

PREDICT the 2022 SAG Awards winners until Feb. 27

SAG Awards odds for Best Film Actress
Who will win?

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