Olivia Colman dethrones Kristen Stewart in Best Actress Oscar odds, but should the Queen of Upsets be the favorite?

Olivia Colman has already taken down one Princess Diana at the Emmys and she may just do so again at the Oscars. The Oscar winner has knocked out Kristen Stewart from the No. 1 spot in the Best Actress odds, less than a week after the race was turned upside down with the “Spencer” star’s Screen Actors Guild Award snub.

Seeking her third Oscar nomination with “The Lost Daughter,” Colman, as of this writing, shares the same odds as Stewart and No. 3 Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) at 9/2, but she’s in pole position due to higher placements. She is also third when it comes to top Expert picks among the three — with six to Stewart’s 10 and Kidman’s seven — but that could quickly change as well.

This marks the first time this season someone other than Stewart has occupied the top spot in the odds. Stewart held a massive lead the past six months as her potential rivals fluctuated below her, but she took a huge hit last Wednesday when she was left out in the cold by the SAG Awards while Colman, Kidman, Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”), Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”) and Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) cracked the final five (Chastain and Gaga are in fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Oscar odds). In the 27-year history of the SAG Awards, nobody has won the Best Actress Oscar without a SAG Award nomination (this includes Kate Winslet, who won in supporting for 2008’s “The Reader” at SAG and in lead at the Oscars). Adding insult to injury, “Spencer” underperformed on the BAFTA longlists the same day, with just four appearances, indicating a lack of industry support. While Stewart’s earned stellar reviews for her turn as Diana and continues to lead critics prizes, the psychological, idiosyncratic bent of “Spencer” has been divisive for audiences.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Will Kristen Stewart be snubbed after that big SAG Awards miss?

“The Lost Daughter” is also divisive among the general public, but that Colman was able to make the SAG Awards cut opposite a slew of biopics speaks to her strength (by comparison, “The Lost Daughter” was longlisted by BAFTA eight times, including for Best Film). This would be Colman’s third Oscar nomination in four years and second straight after her upset Best Actress win for “The Favorite” (2018) and supporting bid for “The Father” (2020). If she prevails, she’d mimic another British star, Glenda Jackson, by winning two Best Actress Oscars in the same timeframe with another nomination and an Emmy win for playing a Queen Elizabeth in between.

But if Colman were to come out on top, perhaps we shouldn’t be predicting her to do so. Between her Oscar victory and her surprise Best Drama Actress Emmy for “The Crown” in September, Colman was not the odds-on favorite heading into either ceremony — she was a distant second behind Glenn Close (“The Wife”) at the former and in fourth at the latter, where her co-star Emma Corrin was tipped to triumph. They don’t call her the Queen of Upsets for nothing.

Oscar odds for Best Actress
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