Top 31 Oscar nominations surprises: We goofed by not predicting Steven Spielberg, Penelope Cruz, Kristen Stewart …

When the 2022 Oscar nominations were announced February 8, Gold Derby’s predictions were proven mostly accurate. We correctly foresaw nine of the 10 Best Picture contenders and ended up with perfect scores in four categories: Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature, and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Although our odds were right on the money in most cases, there were still 31 nominations across the 23 categories that took us by surprise.

Most of our misses were close calls, meaning that, based on the combined projections of our users, editors, and experts, they had better than 100/1 odds but ranked outside of their respective top fives (or top 10 in the case of Best Picture). This applies to 20 of the 31 shockers, including Best Picture nominee “Nightmare Alley,” Best Director contender Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”), and acting contenders Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”), and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”).

But 11 other bids came to fruition despite us giving them 100/1 odds. Perhaps the most notable of these blindsides involved supporting performers Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Judi Dench (“Belfast”), and J. K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”), who all made it in despite underperforming with industry precursors. We also did not expect “The Worst Person in the World” to show up anywhere but in the Best International Film category, but it managed to pick up an additional bid for its original screenplay.

Below is a categorical breakdown of the 31 nominations that did not align with our predictions. Check out the complete list of 94th Oscars nominees.

These contenders earned nominations despite 100/1 odds from our users.

Best Supporting Actor
J. K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”)

Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”)
Judi Dench (“Belfast”)

Best Original Screenplay
“The Worst Person in the World”

Best Film Editing
“tick, tick… BOOM!”

Best Production Design
“The Power of the Dog”

Best Animated Short
“Affairs of the Art”

Best Documentary Short
“Lead Me Home”

Best Live Action Short
“The Dress”
“On My Mind”

These contenders had better than 100/1 odds but were excluded from our final predictions.

Best Picture
“Nightmare Alley”

Best Director
Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)

Best Supporting Actor
Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”)

Best Cinematography
“Nightmare Alley”

Best Costume Design

Best Documentary Feature
“Writing with Fire”

Best Film Editing
“Don’t Look Up”
“King Richard”

Best International Film
“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”

Best Score
“Parallel Mothers”

Best Song
“Somehow You Do” (“Four Good Days”)

Best Sound
“The Power of the Dog”

Best Visual Effects
“Free Guy”

Best Animated Short

Best Documentary Short

Best Live Action Short
“Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”
“Please Hold”

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