Oscar odds update: Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh battle for the lead as Michelle Williams continues ascent

Best Actress is always one of the most exciting categories at the Oscars. Just look at the recent nail-biters won by Frances McDormand (“Nomaadland”) and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) in recent years. This year’s race looks like it might be just as close with Cate Blanchett (“Tar”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) still neck-and-neck in Expert journalists’ predictions with Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) continuing her ascent to the upper reaches of the category. Scroll down to see the Experts’ odds graph as of October 5.

Blanchett holds the lead with 13 out of 21 Experts predicting her to win for her role as a world-renowned conductor fighting through personal and professional challenges. Compare that to just five Experts who are predicting Yeoh to win for her literally multidimensional portrait of a woman trying to save her daughter and prevent the universe from collapsing. But all 21 Experts predict Yeoh will be nominated as opposed to 20 who are betting on Blanchett’s nomination, which is why their overall odds are so close. And Williams has surged into third place as the matriarch in Steven Spielberg‘s semiautobiographical film. She’s got 17 Experts predicting a nom and two predicting a win.

Rounding out the Experts’ current top five are Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) and Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”). Are those five women locked into place? Not necessarily. We can usually expect the momentum to swing in multiple different directions before the Oscars come around. For instance, “Till” just had its world premiere at the New York Film Festival, and its star Danielle Deadwyler is likely to see a bump in the polls after stellar reviews for her performance. And Margot Robbie (“Babylon”) still hasn’t been shown to critics or audiences. Stay tuned.

Check out the Experts’ complete predictions here, and make or update your predictions here in our predictions center.

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