If you look at the line graph of Experts’ Oscar predictions, you’ll see three films tied up in knots at the top of the Best Original Screenplay race: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” and “The Banshees of Inisherin.” But after weeks of “Everything” and “Fabelmans” trading the lead back and forth, “Banshees” has come from behind and taken over as the front-runner while “Everything” ranks second and “Fabelmans” drops to third, according to the journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets.
As of this writing all 22 Experts currently placing their bets agree that “Banshees” will be nominated, with 10 of them betting on it to win. Its script was written by Martin McDonagh, who previously won an Oscar for his short film “Six Shooter” and then picked up a trio of noms for his work in feature films: Best Original Screenplay for “In Bruges” and Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” McDonagh came close to winning both prizes for “Billboards,” with our odds at the time giving him the advantage for Picture and placing him a close second for Screenplay. But he came home from that event empty-handed, though his actors Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell both took home trophies.
This is shaping up to be another close race. “Everything” (by the duo DANIELS) is backed by eight Experts, while “Fabelmans” (by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner) is predicted by four Experts. Elsewhere, “The Fabelmans” is far and away the Experts’ front-runner to win Best Picture, but that category doesn’t always go hand in hand with the writing award. In recent years “The Artist” (2011), “The Shape of Water” (2017), and “Nomadland” (2020) won Best Picture without corresponding screenplay honors. So a split is certainly possible. Do you agree with the Experts that this is how the categories will land?
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