It has been a few weeks now since it was announced that Michelle Williams would be campaigned as a lead actress at the Oscars for “The Fabelmans,” thereby vacating the front-runner spot in our odds for Best Supporting Actress. Two standout performers from “Women Talking” then assumed the top positions by default, but the question was, would they stay there once Expert journalists started updating their forecasts? As it turns out, yes.
As of this writing Jessie Buckley leads the Experts’ Oscar forecasts with 21 predicting she’ll be nominated and nine saying she’ll win: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Susan King (Gold Derby), Wilson Morales (Black Film and TV), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), and Peter Travers (ABC). She’s followed by her co-star Claire Foy, whom 17 are predicting for the nomination and one for the win: Joyce Eng (Gold Derby).
But might they split the vote? They spend the lion’s share of the movie together among the film’s collection of female Mennonites discussing how to respond after systemic abuses by the colony’s men come to light. Foy plays her character’s anger front and center, and she has an awards pedigree thanks to her two Emmys for “The Crown.” Buckley’s reaction to her abuse, meanwhile, is more of a slow burn that pays off gradually and may leave a lasting impression on voters, and she’s coming off a surprise Oscar nom for “The Lost Daughter,” so she already has momentum with the motion picture academy.
In years past we’ve seen co-stars compete against each other for Best Supporting Actress multiple times, with differing outcomes. Recently Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone earned bids for “The Favourite,” with neither winning. However, Melissa Leo beat her “The Fighter” co-nominee Amy Adams, and Octavia Spencer prevailed over fellow “The Help” nominee Jessica Chastain. So it’s impossible to tell this far out if vote-splitting will be a problem, especially when the race is still this wide open. Though Buckley and Foy are currently number-one and number-two, there are nine other women in the category with at least one Expert predicting her to win. This race is far from over.
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