Currently at Gold Derby, our 12 Experts from major media outlets are evenly split in their SAG Awards predictions for the supporting actor category. Six are going with Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) and six are picking Troy Kotsur (“CODA”). Hmm, can we just declare a tie and call it a day?
Smit-McPhee has the support of Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Peter Travers (ABC), Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) and Matthew Jacobs (unaffiliated). On the Netflix drama, Smit-McPhee plays Peter Gordon, a troubled teen in 1925 Montana who gets made fun of for his lisp and effeminate manner.
And Kotsur is forecasted to win by Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Nikki Novak (Fandango), Clayton Davis (Variety), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Susan King (Gold Derby) and Tim Gray (Variety). As blue collar fisherman Frank Rossi, a deaf father of two, Kotsur has trouble bonding with his hearing daughter, who aspires to be a singer in the Apple TV+ film.
SEE Troy Kotsur (‘CODA’) would be only the second deaf actor to be nominated for an Oscar
The other three nominees at the SAG Awards are Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”), Bradley Cooper (“Licorice Pizza”) and Jared Leto (“House of Gucci”). While none of the Experts are picking them to win, the following All-Stars Users are throwing them a bone: Supermalt predicts Affleck, Ben K predicts Cooper, and Shanesedy and Slimnave predict Leto.
The supporting actor champion has gone on to win the Oscar five years in a row now, making it the most accurate of the guild’s acting races. (Both leads missed last year, while supporting actress was wrong three years ago.) Will it be Smit-McPhee or Kotsur that joins the list of winners alongside Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) and Ali (“Moonlight”)?
SEE 2022 SAG Awards Nominations: Full List
Smit-McPhee has been receiving raves since “The Power of the Dog” first premiered at the Venice Film Festival. Critics and viewers alike have singled out the 25-year-old for his quiet intensity, particularly in his scenes with his mother’s new brother-in-law, played by Benedict Cumberbatch. Smit-McPhee has already won the Golden Globe for this role and is expected to take home more trophies on his way to the Oscars.
In “CODA,” which stands for “child of deaf adult,” Kotsur has several “wow” moments with his on-screen daughter (Emilia Jones), most notably in the scene where he asks her to sing for him. The emotional papa touches her throat so he can feel the vibrations of her vocal cords as she belts out “You’re All I Need To Get By.” As Kotsur’s eyes start to well up, so, too, do the audience’s.
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