The castaways of “Survivor 43” have positioned themselves to set a new record next week — all they need to do is vote out a fifth woman in a row. So far the cast has only eliminated females: Morriah Young, Justine Brennan, Nneka Ejere and Lindsay Carmine were the first four players voted out, matching a franchise record. If they continue on this path and vote another woman out next week, they will go down in infamy as the record holders for longest succession of female eliminations to start a season. Yikes!
Luckily, as it stands in Gold Derby’s racetrack odds, the cast is not headed toward setting such a disastrous record. Instead, Geo Bustamante leads our current predictions to be eliminated in Episode 5 at 19/25. He is followed, however, by four women with decent odds to go: Cassidy Clark at 6/1 and Jeanine Zheng, Elisabeth ‘Elie’ Scott and Noelle Lambert all at 13/1.
SEE Everything to know about ‘Survivor 43’
Still, “Survivor 43” has already entered the record books alongside two other seasons. Four women voted out first happened for the first time in “Survivor 12: Panama” and then again in “Survivor 17: Gabon.” Thankfully, it took over two decades for it to happen again. It’s worth noting that both season 12 and season 17 finished with a man as the winner (Aras Baskauskas and Bob Crowley, respectively). Could that be an omen for another male winner this time around?
Men have historically had a “better” track record at the game than women. When it comes to winners, 25 of them have been men compared to only 17 women. On the flip side, which is almost a perfect mirror to the winners, it has happened 25 times that a woman is the first eliminated compared to only 17 men being the first boot. There is no distinguishable correlation between the gender of the first boot and the gender of that season’s winner, however.
Two seasons ago, “Survivor 41” winner Erika Casupanan stopped the show’s longest streak of male winners at six, from Ben Driebergen on season 35 to Tony Vlachos on season 40. The longest streak of female winners is three and happened twice: first with Jenna Morasca, Sandra Diaz-Twine and Amber Brkich on seasons 6-8 and again with Sophie Clarke, Kim Spradlin and Denise Stapley on seasons 23-25. If “Survivor 43” produces a female winner, they will match that streak as well, adding their winner to the string of Erika and Maryanne Oketch. The second longest stretch of male winners was four from Aras on season 12 to Todd Herzog on season 15.
SEE ‘Survivor’ deaths: Full list of castaways we’ve lost
While the first four eliminations being women has happened three times in franchise history already, it’s never happened with four men. The poorest start to a season for men happened on “Survivor 28: Cagayan” when they ousted three men before ever eliminating a woman. The most disastrous starts to a game for men, however, were “Survivor 16: Micronesia” that saw the elimination of six men in the first seven weeks and “Survivor 34: Game Changers” when four men went home in a row from second to fifth boot. Interestingly, women won both of those seasons (Parvati Shallow and Sarah Lacina, respectively).
Season 12, 17 and 43 may have the record for first four boots, but in terms of an overall terrible start for women, “Survivor 33: Milennials vs Gen X” takes the cake. That season, seven women went home in the first eight weeks, meaning it took until the second person on the jury for the game to see a second male player voted out. You may have guessed already, and, yes we can confirm that a man won that season, too — Adam Klein.
Are you on board with our current predictions that Geo will be the next to go? Or do you diverge from the pack and think season 43 will set a new record of five women voted out first? Do you think they’ll extend it to six or even seven?! Sound off about this topic and more in the comments below and our Reality TV forums.
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