PGA Awards nominations: How many will make the cut for Best Picture at the Oscars?

The Producers Guild of America Awards announced its nominees for Best Picture on Thursday (January 12), just hours after Oscar nominations voting began. The 10 contenders are: “Avatar: The Way of Water,”  “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” “TAR,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “The Whale.”

Seven of these number among the Top 10 contenders we are predicting will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. The exceptions: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” and “The Whale.” Expect these to rise in the ranks in the coming days given the success rate of the guild in previewing the eventual Oscar nominees. Conversely, the films we have jockeying for those last slots in the Oscar lineup — the German import “All Quiet on the Western Front plus “Babylon” and “Women Talking” — were snubbed by the PGA and could well fall.

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When the Oscars expanded to 10 nominees in 2010, the Producers Guild of America followed suit. While the academy shifted to a sliding scale in 2012, the PGA Awards stuck with 10 contenders. That leeway has helped it maintain a staggering success rate at previewing the eventual Oscars roster.

Indeed, the guild has predicted 102 of the 116 (i.e., 88%) of the Best Picture nominees over the past 13 years. In the 33-year history of the awards, its pick for best pic has gone on to take home the top Academy Award a whopping 22 times.

The five Best Animated Feature nominees at the PGA Awards mirror our predicted Oscar contenders: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On,” “Minions: The Rise of Gru,” “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” and “Turning Red.”

The PGA Awards will be handed out on Feb. 25. That is five days before the kick off of voting for the Oscar winners. The 95th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 12.

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