What do BAFTA nominations tell us about the Oscars?

The 76th annual BAFTA Awards nominations were revealed on January 19, just two days after the deadline for Oscar voters to weigh in with their choices for nominations. The BAFTAs will be handed out in London on Feb. 19. That is 11 days before academy members start casting their final ballots. The 95th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 12.

The British Academy of Film and Television Academy has approximately 9,000 voting members as does the academy. Historically, about two-thirds of the contenders here also reap Oscar bids. Since the BAFTAs moved up in 2000 to take place before the Oscars, these kudos have foreseen nine of the 22 Best Picture Oscar winners including the 2021 double dipper “Nomadland.”

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These precursor prizes also foresaw academy glory for “Gladiator” (2001), “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2004) and “Slumdog Millionaire” (2009). And the BAFTAs got it right in the first five years of the expanded Best Picture race: “The Hurt Locker” (2010), “The King’s Speech” (2011), “The Artist” (2012), “Argo” (2013) and “12 Years a Slave” (2014).

After that winning streak, their radar was off till two years ago. In 2015 the BAFTAs went with “Boyhood” while “Birdman” won Best Picture at the Oscars. Likewise in 2016, they opted for “The Revenant” instead of the academy’s choice “Spotlight.” In 2017, the British embraced “La La Land” over eventual Oscar winner “Moonlight.” In 2018, the BAFTAs opted for the home-grown “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” over “The Shape of Water.” In 2019, the British pic was “Roma” while the Best Picture prize went to “Green Book.” And in 2020, the English epic “1917” prevailed here over eventual Oscar champ “Parasite.”

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