When Oscar nominations are announced Tuesday morning, which films will do best? I gathered some of Gold Derby’s longtime and most esteemed contributors, Anne Thompson (Indiewire) and Pete Hammond (Deadline), to help me resolve the mystery while doing a video slugfest with me. I also invited Oscarologist Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV.com), who’s been making Oscar predictions with us at Gold Derby for several years, but lately he’s been on an impressive romp. Actually, Wilson keeps crushing the competition when it comes to achieving the best accuracy scores while squaring off against more than 25 other notable pundits predicting award shows at Gold Derby.
Yes, most Oscar gurus agree that “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the Oscar frontrunner. It leads the racetrack odds at Gold Derby, but “The Fabelmans,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and even “Elvis” pose serious threats. So I asked Wilson: What rivals could topple “Everything”? And which movies are we under-estimating?
“’All Quiet on the Western Front’ is going to be huge,” Wilson warns. “This year everybody knew it was going to be included in the race,” but he thinks pundits underestimated it at first. Now that more and more academy voters have seen it and have been wowed by it, “that ship is starting to sail and all of a sudden, you know, it may get the most nominations that people didn’t expect.”
Other big cliffhangers: Can Austin Butler (‘Elvis’) beat Colin Farrell (‘The Banshees of Inisherin’) and Tom Cruise (‘Top Gun: Maverick’) to win Best Actor? Can Michelle Yeoh (‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’) topple topple Cate Blanchett ‘(TAR’)?
Check out all of our Experts’ Oscar predictions here. Use the drop-down menus on that page to view our picks in nearly all other categories, too. Then compare our forecasts against predictions by our Editors, Top 24 Users (who achieved the best scores last year), our Top 24 All Stars (best scores over several years) plus picks by nearly 10,000 of our Users and the odds generated by combining all of those groups. And make sure that you make YOUR predictions, which impact our official odds. Visit our lobby and click on “Oscar Nominations” and please gives us your takes on all of those awards that we track.